About 50 million people could be pushed into acute hunger before the end of 2027 by a rapidly developing El Niño weather system, the UN World Food Programme has warned. The estimate is additional to the 225 million people already facing acute food insecurity across 45 countries.
The worst effects are expected in Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa. Reduced rainfall in south and south-east Asia could also create serious problems for farmers and food supplies.
At a glance:
- The WFP’s estimate covers 45 countries where baseline food-insecurity data is available.
- The projected 50 million increase would be more than one-fifth of the 225 million people already facing acute food insecurity in those countries.
- The WFP has budgeted at least $80m for early-warning and anticipatory relief efforts.
- The most severe effects in southern Africa may come during the 2027–28 lean season, after the October 2026 to March 2027 growing season.
Where the risks are greatest
The WFP analysis identifies Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa as likely to be the hardest-hit regions. In south and south-east Asia, rainfall is expected to be below usual levels, threatening agriculture and farmers’ livelihoods.
The assessment does not cover every country experiencing food insecurity. It focuses on 45 countries where the WFP has baseline estimates, while food-price and food-access effects could extend beyond those areas.
Why the effects may arrive later
In southern Africa, the main growing season runs from October 2026 to March 2027. Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience service, said the biggest food-security impact there was expected during the 2027–28 lean season, roughly nine months after the harvest period.
Farmers may take more than one season to exhaust existing food supplies. The region could receive some protection from the unusually good harvest in the previous year, but that cushion may not last through a poor growing season.
What could limit the damage
The WFP plans to use early-warning systems and anticipatory relief before the worst weather effects arrive, with at least $80m budgeted for those efforts. The organisation hopes these measures can reduce the impact even if this El Niño becomes more severe than earlier events.
The WFP said a lack of funding had led to cuts in some data-collection efforts, making preparation more difficult. During the 2015–16 El Niño, an estimated 60 million to 100 million people experienced acute food insecurity, which the WFP distinguishes from famine.
Food prices could also rise
The WFP warned that food prices could come under pressure worldwide as well as in the 45 countries in its analysis. Jean-Martin Bauer, the organisation’s director of food security, said the outcome would depend partly on whether exporting countries continued to keep food moving across borders.
Farmers in the UK and Europe have also warned about extreme heat and a lack of rainfall affecting harvests, while retailers are preparing for higher prices. The WFP described this as a possible regional and global food-access problem rather than a forecast limited to the countries facing the most severe hunger.
Related coverage:
No comments yet. Start the discussion.