A new World Weather Attribution analysis found that human-caused climate change made the fire-weather conditions behind Canada’s 2026 wildfires more than twice as likely. The conditions amplified wildfire risk in Ontario and the Northwest Territories, where fires have forced evacuations and sent hazardous smoke across Canada and into the United States.
Nearly 700 fires are burning across Canada, affecting about 3.8m hectares, mainly in boreal forests, according to the supplied report. The findings matter because weather that dries vegetation and soil enough to support extreme fires is now expected far more often than it was before global heating.
At a glance:
- The analysis examined fire weather in Ontario and the Northwest Territories.
- Climate-influenced extreme fire conditions are expected every two to six years in the Northwest Territories and every six to 15 years in Ontario.
- Without human-caused warming from burning coal, oil and gas, comparable conditions would occur less than once every 40 years.
- About 8,000 people in British Columbia are under an evacuation order amid what authorities described as explosive and extremely dangerous fire conditions.
| Without human-caused warming | With current climate influence | |
|---|---|---|
| Northwest Territories | Less than once every 40 years | Every two to six years |
| Ontario | Less than once every 40 years | Every six to 15 years |
What the analysis found
World Weather Attribution, a consortium that studies climate change’s influence on extreme events, concluded that heightened global temperatures increased the likelihood of the fire-prone weather seen in Canada this year by more than twofold.
Related coverage: Toronto Experiences Hazardous Air Quality Due to Wildfire Smoke from Northwestern Ontario.
The conditions dry vegetation and soils, leaving them more prone to combustion. The analysis found that these conditions are no longer rare in the two regions it examined.
The fires’ human impact
Canada’s fires have led to town evacuations and unhealthy smoke across multiple cities in North America. The smoke has also spread into the United States, where it has affected air quality.
British Columbia is facing additional danger beyond the regions studied. About 8,000 people are under an evacuation order as fires burn in conditions described as explosive and extremely dangerous.
More context: Experts reject Trump’s accusations against Canada over wildfire smoke affecting US air quality.
Why scientists say the pattern is changing
Canada has always experienced wildfires and contains about a quarter of the world’s boreal forests. But Theodore Keeping, an Imperial College London extreme-weather expert and member of the research team, said the scale and intensity of fires since 2023 represented a fundamentally different pattern.
The researchers said most of Canada’s boreal forest is unmanaged and argued that adaptation and wildfire preparedness cannot address the full risk created by planet-warming emissions. They called for a rapid move away from fossil fuels.
Questions readers ask
How often are these extreme fire conditions now expected?
The analysis estimates every two to six years in the Northwest Territories and every six to 15 years in Ontario.
Also read: Major Wildfires Spread Across Wales and England as Officials Warn of Exceptional Fire Danger.
How many fires and how much land are affected?
The supplied report says nearly 700 fires are burning across Canada and about 3.8m hectares have been affected, mainly in boreal forests.
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