Costa Rican diplomat Rebeca Grynspan has emerged as the surprise frontrunner to become the next United Nations secretary general and, if elected, would be the organisation’s first woman to hold the post. She received 10 “encourage” votes in the first secret straw poll of the Security Council, alongside four “no opinion” votes and one “discourage” vote.
The vote is an early test rather than a final decision. António Guterres is due to complete his second term on 31 December 2026, and the selection process is expected to conclude in October, with the 193-member General Assembly electing a candidate recommended by the Security Council.
At a glance:
- Grynspan received 10 encourage, four no-opinion and one discourage vote in the first Security Council straw poll.
- Her closest rival, former Guyanese UN envoy Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, received nine encourage, two discourage and four no-opinion votes.
- The next secretary general is expected to come from Latin America under an informal regional rotation system.
- A candidate needs nine positive Security Council votes and no veto from a permanent member.
Why Grynspan is ahead at this stage
Grynspan is the head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development and a former vice-president of Costa Rica. Her parents emigrated from Poland to Central America after the Holocaust, and her maternal grandparents were killed by the Nazis. If elected, she would also be the UN’s first Jewish secretary general.
A western diplomat described Grynspan as a continuity candidate who has the tacit support of Guterres. Her opening poll result puts her ahead of Rodrigues-Birkett, who received nine encourage votes, but the identity of Grynspan’s single discouraging voter is not known.
The contest is not settled
The secretary general is elected after the Security Council asks the General Assembly to endorse one recommendation. The council has five permanent and 10 temporary members, and a candidate must secure at least nine positive votes without being vetoed by a permanent member.
Further Security Council meetings will test the candidates’ support before the process is likely to conclude in October. The source says three other candidates, including former Chilean president and former UN human rights commissioner Michelle Bachelet, have probably faced too much influential opposition to win.
Grynspan’s record on Israel and Palestine
Grynspan has invoked her Jewish heritage in arguing for an end to conflict, saying that peace allowed her refugee parents to find “respect and dignity” in Costa Rica. Her sister moved to Israel at 17 to study chemistry, and Grynspan’s niece and nephew completed compulsory service in the Israel Defense Forces.
At the same time, UNCTAD under Grynspan has documented the economic effects of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories. A February 2026 report estimated that the Palestinian economy lost $212.2bn in constant 2015 dollars from 2000 to 2024, while Grynspan said in November 2025 that Gaza’s GDP per capita had fallen to $161 a year.
Why the choice matters for the UN
The succession comes as the UN faces 20% job cuts and criticism that the secretary general’s mediating role has been displaced by other actors. The source describes the organisation as struggling between being an ignored moral conscience and a forum where opposing sides repeat established positions.
The poll also highlights the risk of deadlock. The diplomat said the source of candidates’ discouragement votes will matter, particularly if they come from Russia, China or the United States.
Questions readers ask
Has Rebeca Grynspan been elected secretary general?
No. She is leading an early Security Council straw poll, but the selection process is continuing and is expected to conclude in October.
When does António Guterres leave the post?
Guterres is due to complete his second term on 31 December 2026.
What does a candidate need to win?
A candidate needs at least nine positive Security Council votes and no veto from any permanent council member, followed by election by the General Assembly.
Related coverage:
No comments yet. Start the discussion.