The mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, is due to expire at the end of 2026, while the shape of any successor mission in southern Lebanon remains unsettled. Any replacement would likely have fewer troops and form part of a wider regional agreement.
The uncertainty comes as negotiations continue between Lebanon and Israel over security arrangements in the south, an area devastated by an Israeli war since 2023 in which thousands have been killed. Analysts warn that a gap between UNIFIL’s departure and the creation of another force could create serious security risks.
Why UNIFIL is being phased out
UNIFIL’s mandate began in 1978 during Lebanon’s civil war. The force has often been criticised by opposing sides for failing to implement UN Resolution 1701, adopted 20 years ago.
Resolution 1701 calls for Israeli troops to withdraw behind the Blue Line, the de facto border between Israel, Lebanon and the occupied Golan Heights; for the Lebanese Armed Forces to deploy in southern Lebanon; and for Hezbollah to be disarmed south of the Litani River. But implementing the resolution was not part of UNIFIL’s original mission.
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A limited role in the current talks
UNIFIL’s mandate has focused on monitoring, reporting, coordination and assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Lebanese political scientist Imad Salamey said the force was never given authority to forcibly disarm Hezbollah, compel an Israeli withdrawal or stop violations.
Lebanon and Israel agreed to a framework agreement on June 26 that aims to establish pilot zones. Under the proposal, Israeli troops would withdraw from those zones while the Lebanese Army would take control and oversee Hezbollah’s disarmament. UNIFIL has no role in the pilot zones and no longer has a seat on the ceasefire monitoring mechanism, according to the International Crisis Group’s senior Lebanon analyst, David Wood.
Possible replacements and the risk of a gap
One proposal would give the UN Truce Supervision Organization a role, while European states have discussed contributing personnel to whatever mission replaces UNIFIL. UNTSO would be substantially smaller: UNIFIL had approximately 7,000 personnel in June 2026, compared with a peak of about 15,000. In June, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres presented three options to the Security Council ranging from 900 to 3,000 troops.
The final form of a new mission depends on a broader security arrangement between Israel and Lebanon. Wood said UNIFIL could still help mediate military stand-offs and monitor developments as a short-term measure. Salamey said international forces could support peace but could not replace Lebanese state authority, a monopoly over arms, Israeli withdrawal, respect for Lebanese sovereignty and Iranian noninterference.
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