How long can the US blockade of Iran really continue?

How long can the US blockade of Iran really continue?

The United States says its naval blockade of Iranian ports can continue indefinitely, with ships rotated in and out of the region. The claim comes as ceasefire talks remain deadlocked and Iran continues to say the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until its conditions are met.

The strategy is facing questions over the endurance of US naval forces and the reported conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been at sea for nearly seven months. US officials reject reports of deaths and worsening conditions on the carrier, while lawmakers are demanding answers.

What Washington says it will do

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Thursday that the Navy could maintain a blockade “indefinitely” by rotating ships. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration would announce new economic measures intended to isolate Iran and reinforce pressure on its ports and economy.

The United States says it has control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for regional shipping. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority disputes that claim, saying the waterway remains blocked and will not reopen until Iran’s conditions are accepted. Only a handful of ships have reportedly passed through this week.

Related coverage: Iran links Strait of Hormuz reopening to US concessions.

Why the USS Abraham Lincoln is central to the dispute

The USS Abraham Lincoln left San Diego, California, in November last year with more than 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard. Senator Richard Blumenthal said the carrier had been continuously at sea for nearly seven months, longer than any previous US aircraft-carrier deployment without a port stop, and cited reports of declining morale, mental-health concerns, supply shortages, water contamination, safety incidents and disrupted mail.

Reports cited by two US military-focused publications included an account from Annabelle Loma, the wife of a sailor, who said he tried to jump overboard amid severe burnout. Hegseth called the reports misrepresented. US Central Command said on Friday that claims of deaths and suicidal ideation were false, adding that one sailor who fell overboard on August 3 was recovered safely.

The operational limits of an indefinite deployment

The administration says the USS George Washington, currently in the Pacific, has begun moving towards the Middle East as part of efforts to relieve forces in the region. But retired senior naval officer Harlan Ullman said advanced vessels such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers require maintenance that cannot be completed at sea.

More context: Why the Strait of Hormuz talks are becoming harder to resolve.

Ullman said prolonged deployments can erode a ship’s readiness and capability because some repairs and maintenance require a port. The issue has prompted lawmakers, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and California Representative Mike Levin, to call for explanations from the Defense Department and Navy leadership.

Why Iran may try to wait out the pressure

The blockade has targeted Iran’s crude-oil income, with the source report saying Tehran has lost at least $6bn in oil revenue since the blockade began on April 13. Iran has described the blockade as an act of piracy and has linked reopening Hormuz to lifting the blockade and sanctions and unfreezing its assets.

Analysts cited in the source report say Iran retains leverage through the Strait of Hormuz and could raise the risks to US naval assets or regional energy exports. Iran has also sought to pressure neighbouring countries, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, by attacking US-linked military, infrastructure and energy targets, according to the report.

Also read: Mohsen Rezaei takes Iran’s top security post amid Hormuz talks.

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