Vladimir Putin has not ordered another mass mobilisation, despite growing concern in Russia that the Kremlin is struggling to replace losses in Ukraine. People familiar with discussions in Moscow and a senior western official said there was no indication that a decision had been taken.
The Kremlin is instead relying on paid voluntary contracts, regional recruitment targets and increasingly coercive tactics. Moscow recruits roughly 1,000 soldiers a day, while western estimates cited in the source material put Russian casualties at more than 30,000 killed and wounded a month.
How the recruitment system is under pressure
Russia has recruited roughly 1.3 million contract soldiers since Putin’s September 2022 mobilisation, which called up 300,000 reservists after battlefield setbacks. High signing bonuses, salaries worth several years of local wages and payments to families of soldiers killed in combat have helped the Kremlin avoid another unpopular call-up.
Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, calculated that the current recruitment rate is largely replacing depleted units rather than expanding the offensive. Recruitment has become harder even as officials continue to offer substantial financial incentives.
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Officials deny an imminent call-up
Top officials have dismissed reports of an impending mobilisation. Former president Dmitry Medvedev called the reports “nonsense” and a “lying provocation” by Ukraine, while people familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking said authorities appeared determined to push more men into contracts instead.
Rumours nevertheless circulate in Telegram chats used by colleagues, sports teams and friends. Some Russians speculate that a new call-up could follow September’s Duma elections, although Ivan Chuviliaev, a spokesperson for a group that helps Russian soldiers desert, said it remained guesswork whether mobilisation would happen.
Pressure is moving to regions and vulnerable groups
Regional governors and local administrations are responsible for meeting recruitment targets set by Moscow. Governments have paid recruiters and residents who persuade others to enlist, while private recruiters and public-sector employees search social media for candidates. Regional governments have paid at least 7.7bn roubles ($96m) through these schemes, according to the source material.
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Lawyers and activists have documented men being detained on streets, taken from workplaces or summoned to stations before being brought to recruitment offices and pressured to sign contracts. Universities and vocational schools have been encouraged to recruit students into drone units, and a law signed by Putin expanded the pool of convicted prisoners eligible to sign military contracts, including people convicted of serious and especially serious crimes.
A further mass mobilisation would carry political risks. The 2022 call-up prompted a large exodus from Russia and a sharp drop in Putin’s approval ratings. Analysts cited in the source material said Moscow was more likely, for now, to increase bonuses and pressure on regional officials, but warned that continued recruitment difficulties could force a choice between a mass call-up, a selective mobilisation, sending conscripts to the front or quietly calling up reservists.
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