The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran is set to expire on Monday, with little indication that either side is prepared to extend it. Washington and Tehran have accused each other of violating the agreement, which was signed on June 17 after high-level talks hosted by Pakistan.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Saturday that Tehran had not decided whether to restart negotiations with Washington. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan were still exchanging messages with Iran, while Tehran was separately discussing possible new shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman if a political solution could be reached.
What the agreement promised
The MoU was intended to end more than three months of fighting between the United States and Iran and address conflict in Lebanon, while leaving complex questions about Iran’s nuclear programme for later negotiations. It declared an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations” and called for a final deal, endorsed by the UN Security Council, within a maximum of 60 days unless both sides agreed to extend the timetable.
Under the agreement, the United States was to end its naval blockade within 30 days, withdraw forces near Iran after the final deal, begin work on a reconstruction and development package worth at least $300bn, terminate sanctions, issue waivers for Iranian oil exports and allow Iran to access frozen funds. Iran was to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, allow ships to pass without charge for 60 days and reaffirm that it would not seek nuclear weapons.
Related coverage: Trump says US will claim Strait of Hormuz after Iran war.
How the dispute developed
The two governments soon disagreed about whether the document created a ceasefire or a more permanent settlement, and whether the agreement remained in force. On June 27, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the deal after strikes in the region; Iran said US strikes violated the MoU’s first article.
On July 7, Trump said the agreement was over. Iranian officials then said Washington had violated and suspended its commitments and that Tehran had suspended its own. The United States has not fully lifted sanctions, while the promised reopening of Hormuz has not materialised. Both countries continue to insist that they control the strait.
What could happen after Monday
Araghchi has said the Islamabad MoU concerned the end of the war rather than a ceasefire. From Iran’s perspective, he said, there was no 60-day ceasefire to extend because the United States had violated the agreement and continued attacks.
More context: Iran links Strait of Hormuz reopening to US concessions.
Iran’s recent national-security leadership changes point to a tougher position in any future talks. The appointment of former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps head Mohsen Rezaee to lead the Supreme National Security Council is intended to better coordinate military and civilian operations, according to analysts cited in the source report. Potential Iranian demands could include ending the war in Gaza, lifting sanctions and a blockade of Yemen, and denuclearising Israel.
The United States has intensified its rhetoric over Hormuz and economic pressure on Iran. Trump said Friday that he would soon declare the waterway a US territory after defeating Iran, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would apply measures that had “never been seen” on Iran. Analysts cited in the source report said US military and economic options were becoming more limited, while Iran could continue disrupting traffic through the strait.
Also read: Iran weighs return to US talks as Hormuz conditions remain unresolved.
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