The United States is preparing a new wave of economic restrictions on Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning that the measures could cause damage on a scale “never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country”. President Donald Trump has also said Iran would be hit hard economically.
The threatened action comes as a naval blockade, attacks on ships and the collapse of a memorandum of understanding have intensified pressure on Iran’s economy. Iranian authorities say they could move to offensive operations while preparing to counter a possible ground invasion.
What Iran says about the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States met commitments under the expired memorandum. Those conditions include lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, ending oil sanctions and stopping threats and military operations on all fronts.
Negotiations involving Oman and other mediators have continued over a possible temporary arrangement for the strait. Before the war, about one-fifth of the global oil and natural gas used to flow through the waterway, according to the source material.
Related coverage: Trump says US will claim Strait of Hormuz after Iran war.
How the blockade is affecting Iran’s economy
Iran has tried to keep essential supplies moving by rerouting food, consumer goods and industrial inputs through land borders with Pakistan, Türkiye and other countries, and through the Caspian Sea with Russia and Central Asia. Before the tensions escalated, the government had delegated some powers to border provinces to import necessities and build inventories.
The blockade has also stopped Iran’s oil exports again after a temporary ceasefire period in late June and early July allowed the blockade to be lifted for several weeks. During that period, Iran rapidly exported oil held aboard supertankers while its military regrouped.
Why energy is central to the next sanctions wave
The United States could target additional independent Chinese refineries that buy or process Iranian crude, as well as larger Chinese banks involved in Iran-linked funds. Existing secondary sanctions have already been imposed on smaller China- and Hong Kong-based entities connected to Iranian oil money.
More context: Iran weighs return to US talks as Hormuz conditions remain unresolved.
Economist Mahdi Ghodsi of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies said energy trade was Washington’s strongest source of leverage. Potential pressure points include shipping, insurance, payments, foreign buyers, intermediaries and trans-shipment routes through neighbouring countries.
What households and businesses could face
Iran’s roughly 90 million people are already dealing with persistent inflation, insecure and poorly paid work, declining purchasing power and uncertainty. The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian has named market stabilisation, livelihood protection and national resilience as priorities for the next two years.
Ghodsi warned that if the blockade continues into autumn and winter, Iran could face severe shortages. Existing electricity, gas and water imbalances could worsen, leading to deeper rationing and temporary industrial shutdowns to preserve household supplies. Fuel imports worth several billion dollars a year have stopped, while the government has reduced some subsidised petrol quotas and considered higher fuel prices.
Also read: Why Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Threat Faces Legal Barriers.
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