Europe’s wildfire-burned area is projected to increase by 39% by 2100 even in the best-case climate scenario, unless fire management improves, according to a study. In the scenario, global heating is capped at 1.8C above preindustrial levels.
The increase is linked to more hot, dry and windy weather that can turn small fires into major infernos. In the study’s worst-case scenario, with global heating reaching 3.6C, the area burned would almost triple.
What the study projects
Researchers compared projected annual burned areas for 2070–2100 with modelled results for 2000–2030. They found that worsening fire weather was the biggest driver of the change, with the most consistent deterioration occurring under the high-emissions scenario across virtually all of Europe.
The researchers said improved fire management could moderate the projected increases by more than 70%, but would not eliminate them. A second model found that continued improvements in firefighting could reduce burned area by 92% in the cooler scenario compared with holding firefighting efforts at today’s levels.
Related coverage: Thousands flee wildfires spreading across Europe.
Why fire management has limits
Maik Billing, an ecosystem researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the study’s lead author, said investment in fire management could help only up to a point and could not replace climate mitigation.
The researchers used the Human Development Index as a proxy for firefighting ability and acknowledged that the rise of mega-fires makes it difficult to extrapolate from past experience. Earlier improvements in fire suppression reduced fires and burned area in southern Europe, but suppressing even small fires also increased residual fuel loads, allowing fewer but more ferocious fires when conditions became favourable.
Europe’s current fire season
The research was published as wildfires continued to affect Europe. Large fires had hit the UK, Belgium and Germany after blazes in France, Spain, Italy, Croatia and Greece.
More context: Southwest Europe battles extensive wildfires amid record heatwaves and evacuations.
Across the EU, the fire season was projected to become the third-worst on record, behind 2025 and 2022, according to European Forest Fire Information Service data cited in the source material. More than 600,000 hectares had burned, with records for that point in the year reported in Belgium, France and Slovakia.
What researchers say drives the risk
Víctor Resco de Dios, a forestry engineer at the University of Lleida who was not involved in the study, said wildfire risk reflected the interaction between global warming and landscape conditions. He said the problem would have been largely mitigated if European landscapes had the smaller forest area they had a century ago.
Also read: Rising wildfires worldwide compel firefighters to prioritize limited resources amid worsening conditions.
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