The El Niño developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest for more than 100 years, the UK Met Office says, with increased rainfall and storminess forecast for the UK this autumn, particularly around November.
The weather pattern is also expected to bring severe drought risks to parts of the southern hemisphere and lift global average temperatures. The Met Office forecasts that 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Why this El Niño is expected to be exceptional
A typical El Niño involves Pacific sea temperatures rising by more than 1C, while a rise of 2C is considered a major event, according to Prof Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting. This year, temperatures are expected to rise by more than 3C, making the event the largest since the 19th century, the Met Office says.
Scaife said the event had already reached about 2C and was expected to peak at more than 3C, a level he described as outside modern climate records. The strongest effects are expected in the tropics, including severe drought in parts of South America and the west Pacific.
Related coverage: Sea temperatures reached a July record during Europe’s extreme heat.
What the forecast means for the UK
Wave-like disturbances from the tropics can affect north-western Europe, and the Met Office says the UK is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions. The forecast follows a prolonged period of heat and limited rainfall that has placed pressure on water supplies, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
Almost three-quarters of England, or 71.3%, and all of Wales have been pushed into drought. Reservoir levels have fallen to 62.6%, which is 16.3% below the level expected for this point in the year, according to Defra.
Rain will not end the drought immediately
The National Drought Group said recent showers and cooler temperatures would not significantly ease current water scarcity. It warned that drought conditions could continue into the new year because current forecasts do not indicate enough rainfall for recovery before December.
More context: England Declared in Drought as July Becomes One of the Driest Months on Record.
Rivers, reservoirs and groundwater may need months of sustained rainfall to be fully replenished. The National Drought Group has moved from monthly to weekly meetings to coordinate the response among government, regulators, water companies, farmers, scientists and conservation organisations.
Global temperature and drought risks
The Met Office says large El Niño events release more ocean heat into the atmosphere, increasing global average temperatures, especially in the calendar year after the winter peak. Dr Nick Dunstone said 2027 was very likely to exceed 2024’s record and temporarily pass 1.5C above the preindustrial level.
The Met Office also identified heightened drought risks in southern Africa and north-east Australia, while forecasting wetter and stormier conditions across north-western Europe, including the UK.
Also read: WFP warns El Niño could deepen hunger crisis in 45 countries.
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