Iran has threatened Bulgaria after its parliament approved the use of Bezmer Air Base to refuel US military aircraft supporting operations in the Middle East and against Iran. The threat is credible enough to keep the risk of an attack above zero, but experts cited in the source report say an actual strike could hand Washington a strategic victory by drawing Europe more directly into the war.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Bulgarian counterpart that countries aiding what Tehran calls US “aggression” would be considered legitimate targets for retaliation. The reported threat comes as Iran’s retaliation has extended beyond the immediate conflict zone, including missile strikes on countries in the Gulf and Jordan.
Why Bulgaria is in focus
Bulgaria’s parliament approved the use of Bezmer Air Base in July under an agreement allowing US military aircraft to refuel there. The arrangement supports US military operations in the Middle East and against Iran.
Southeastern Europe is considered strategically important because it hosts NATO bases, supplies for Ukraine and access to the Black Sea. Armida van Rij, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Reform, described the region as Europe’s “soft underbelly”.
Related coverage: NATO responds to reported Iranian strike plans in Europe.
A strike on Bezmer could raise the cost of Bulgaria’s cooperation with Washington and potentially create tension between the two countries. Angel Petrov, a Sofia-based journalist, said the war is generally viewed in Bulgaria as remote and less important than Ukraine.
What could an attack achieve?
Iran’s declared aim is to prise Europe away from the US campaign. Ali Bakir, a senior non-resident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said attacking Europe would instead intensify Iran’s isolation and play into US President Donald Trump’s hands.
An attack on Bulgaria, a member of both the European Union and NATO, could turn Europe from a cautious bystander into a party to the conflict. The source report says such an attack could trigger NATO’s Article 4 and potentially lead to military retaliation, while giving Washington the European coalition it has not assembled so far.
Why the risk has not disappeared
Tehran has said that any base used to attack Iranian territory is a legitimate target. Iran could frame a strike on a European facility as an attack on US assets located on European soil rather than an attack on Europe itself, a distinction it has used when striking other countries in the region.
The source report identifies Iran’s command-and-control cohesion as another uncertainty. If retaliation were ordered by actors outside the group setting political strategy, a response could become unpredictable. NATO defences might protect Europe against Iranian missiles, but the report says the longer-term danger may be a prolonged US-Iran war that strains European finances and diverts support from Ukraine.
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