Why Nigeria and the Sahel’s security gap is growing

Why Nigeria and the Sahel’s security gap is growing

Nigeria’s diplomatic relations with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have deteriorated as the four countries confront overlapping threats from ISWAP, Boko Haram and other armed groups operating across national borders.

The divide was highlighted in December 2025, when Burkina Faso detained 11 Nigerian Air Force personnel after their C-130 transport aircraft made an emergency landing in Bobo-Dioulasso while travelling to Portugal for scheduled maintenance. Burkina Faso said the aircraft lacked the required airspace authorisation; Nigerian officials said a technical problem caused the landing.

A detention exposed the political rift

The Nigerian Air Force said the landing was a precautionary measure carried out under safety procedures. The aircraft and its 11-member crew were released after diplomatic talks on December 17, then left Burkina Faso two days later and continued to Portugal via Ghana.

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States in September 2023 under the Liptako-Gourma Charter, which established a framework for collective defence and mutual assistance. Their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States took effect on January 29, 2025.

Security cooperation has weakened

Boko Haram and ISWAP remain active in Nigeria, while ISWAP also operates in southeastern Niger, particularly in the Diffa region. Niger withdrew from the Multinational Joint Task Force in March 2025, saying the move would strengthen security around its oil assets.

Nigerian resilience adviser Abiola Sadiq said the withdrawal created a significant gap in counterterrorism cooperation and cross-border coordination. She warned that worsening relations could give ISWAP more room to move personnel and resources through poorly coordinated security zones. Nigeria’s Borno and Yobe states border Niger in the northeast, while Sokoto and Katsina lie farther west along the frontier.

Trade and movement remain uncertain

The political rupture affects a region linked by trade and labour migration. Nigeria is West Africa’s largest economy and a key market for goods moving through the Sahel corridor, while the four countries have established cross-border commercial ties.

After the AES states left ECOWAS, the regional bloc said their citizens would continue, until further notice, to have visa-free movement, residence and establishment rights within the ECOWAS region. It also said goods and services from the three countries would continue to receive treatment under existing regional trade arrangements. The uncertainty for traders, transport operators and workers concerns how easily people and goods will move and which rules will apply.

Shared threats persist despite political separation

On July 30, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said insecurity in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger had compounded Nigeria’s own security challenges. The three AES governments rejected that assessment, and Burkina Faso’s Foreign Minister Karamoko Jean-Marie Traore met Nigeria’s charge d’affaires in Ouagadougou with representatives of Mali and Niger present.

The dispute comes amid further instability in the Sahel. On April 25, 2026, coordinated attacks targeted locations in Mali, and Mali’s government and Reuters reported that Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed at his residence in Kati, near Bamako. JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front later claimed joint responsibility.

Bolaji Akinyemi, a Nigerian professor and former external affairs minister, said regional security challenges were partly connected to the aftermath of Muammar Gaddafi’s overthrow in Libya in 2011. A Malian international relations analyst told the source report that repeated confrontations had hardened positions, while warning that armed groups could exploit the widening gap unless Nigeria and the Sahel capitals found a durable channel for dialogue.

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