Mozambique has begun a two-day forum on the future of displaced people as the armed conflict in northern Cabo Delgado enters its ninth year. More than 1.3 million people have fled their homes during the conflict, including 100,000 displaced in late 2025 alone, according to the United Nations.
The latest violence has affected all 17 districts of Cabo Delgado for the first time. Some communities that previously hosted displaced people are now fleeing themselves, while others have been displaced repeatedly.
How the latest violence is spreading
Renewed clashes since late 2025 have involved the Mozambican army and allied forces against Islamic State Mozambique Province, or ISMP, also known locally as al-Shabab. Fighting has been reported around Mocimboa de Praia and in formerly safer areas such as Mueda, which had become a centre for displaced people and aid organisations.
Aid groups have withdrawn from northern Mozambique or reduced their operations amid global aid cuts. We World country representative Hannah Danziger da Silva said fewer people have been moving in recent months because many are returning to their homes and crops after hiding in nearby bush areas during attacks.
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The conflict is unfolding alongside more severe floods and cyclones. Cyclone Chido displaced nearly 100,000 people in late 2024, adding another source of disruption to the region’s humanitarian crisis.
Key points
- At least 28,163 people were displaced between January and July; women and children made up 65 percent of them.
- The United Nations said its response was reaching 619,000 of the 1.1 million people recently targeted because of funding gaps.
- UNICEF estimates that about 1.8 million people need assistance, including 1 million children.
Why ISMP has survived
ISMP is estimated to have 300 to 500 members and emerged in northern Mozambique in the early 2010s. The group was formally acknowledged by ISIL in 2019 after attacks that began in 2017, when fighters targeted police stations and civilians in Mocimboa de Praia.
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The region is rich in ruby, gold, marine wildlife and gas but is Mozambique’s poorest. Historical grievances over neglect, poverty and the distribution of gas wealth helped fuel unrest, while droughts and cyclones have reduced agricultural income.
ACLED conflict monitor Peter Bofin said ISMP has maintained local support and illicit finance networks. The group has expanded kidnapping for ransom, taxed illegal gold mining, carried out mining itself and forcibly recruited fighters.
Military response and the prospect of talks
Mozambique’s forces were later joined by Rwandan troops and a Southern African Development Community mission. Their offensives pushed ISMP out of territory in 2021, but the SADC force left in 2024. About 5,000 Rwandan Defence Forces soldiers remain in the north, mainly around the liquefied natural gas project area.
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President Daniel Chapo is now considering negotiations alongside continued military action. He has said the government must identify the group’s leaders and motivations, while observers have argued that talks should also address northern communities’ grievances and poverty.
There is no evidence that state-level negotiations have worked with comparable ideological armed groups. ACLED recorded four clashes between ISMP and Mozambican forces in August, all initiated by government troops, according to Bofin.
What happens next
The government’s two-day forum is the confirmed next stage for discussions about the future of displaced people, while President Chapo’s administration continues efforts to identify possible interlocutors for dialogue.
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