China’s emissions decline as electric transport cushions oil shock

China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026 after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran, analysis of National Bureau of Statistics energy data found. Oil use fell 9% overall and 16% in transport, while oil imports dropped 32%, equivalent to about 1 million barrels a day.

The shift helped China maintain or increase overall transport use despite the disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, as journeys by electric cars, buses, trains and trucks rose while many petrol and diesel vehicles stayed off the roads.

Why the emissions decline matters

The analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air indicates that this was the first time China’s overall emissions had fallen because of lower oil use rather than lower coal consumption. Coal generation increased during the quarter, driven by changing economic incentives and delays in adapting the electricity grid.

China is the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter and also the largest manufacturer, user and exporter of batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels. Analysts said the disruption to oil supplies strengthened the economic and strategic case for reducing dependence on petroleum.

Key points

• About two-thirds of the fall in oil imports came from drawing down strategic stockpiles.
• A reduction in demand covered most of the remaining third.
• China’s coal generation rose during the quarter as grid delays caused wind and solar power to be wasted.
• In the first half of 2026, electric vehicles displaced oil use equivalent to the United Kingdom’s total consumption over six months.

A possible shift in transport demand

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said transport-sector decarbonisation had been accelerated in qualitative terms and described electrification as a way to reduce exposure to energy shocks. For additional context, see “Europe’s 2026 marine heatwaves linked to carbon pollution”.

Analysts expect much of the reduced oil demand may not return even if global crude prices fall. Muyi Yang, a senior analyst at Ember, said the crisis reinforced the view that China’s fossil-fuel peak was coming into view at provincial and sectoral levels, although Ember was due to publish a separate overview of China’s energy trends the following week.