As many as 23 people died in July in attacks on 35 ships in the Black Sea, according to estimates from Türkiye Denizciler Sendikası, as Russian and Ukrainian strikes disrupted commercial shipping and grain exports.
The attacks continued into August, with vessels and port infrastructure targeted around the Black Sea and the neighbouring Sea of Azov. The escalation has raised concerns that reduced grain shipments could add to global food-price pressures.
How the maritime threat has widened
Russia struck Ukraine’s main grain-export hubs of Odesa and Chornomorsk in July. Ukraine has also carried out retaliatory attacks, including drone strikes on Russian vessels and port buildings at Novorossiysk, a key port for oil and grain exports.
The attacks have extended beyond ports and their immediate approaches, according to analysts at maritime risk intelligence firm Vanguard. They said commercial vessels face greater exposure because of the ports they visit, their trading activity and the cargoes they carry. For additional context, see “Deadly Russian and Ukrainian strikes deepen war’s toll”.
The International Maritime Organization’s secretary-general condemned what he called a “deterioration of maritime security around the globe”. A Russian-flagged cargo ship, the Omskiy-107, was abandoned after a Ukrainian drone strike near Novorossiysk and later ran aground on Turkey’s Black Sea coast near the Bosphorus.
Why grain markets are under pressure
Russia is the world’s largest grain exporter, with most shipments going to the Middle East and north Africa, including Turkey and Egypt. Ukraine is the fifth-largest grain exporter. More than 70% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports leave through Black Sea ports, while another 20% come through the Sea of Azov, according to Oxford Economics. A related part of this story is covered in “Macron pledges faster French missile deliveries as Ukraine faces intensified Russian attacks”.
Russia suspended shipping in the Sea of Azov in July after Ukrainian drone attacks and began redirecting some grain through alternative routes, including the Caspian and Baltic seas and the Pacific. Ukraine has also been unable to move large volumes through its Black Sea ports; its food minister said the country exported about 1.4m tonnes, or one-third of what it could have exported, by sea, rail, river and road.
Global wheat prices have risen in recent weeks but remain below their levels at the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. Oxford Economics forecasts global food prices will rise by nearly 12% this year and a further 4.8% in 2027, while analysts warn that shipping disruption could compound other food-supply shocks, including lower European grain yields after extreme summer heat. The development of this issue can be followed in “Fire erupts on ships at Egypt’s Damietta port”.
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