European defence planners working with Nato fear Europe could not currently sustain a prolonged war of attrition with Russia because the public is not prepared for the demands of a major conflict, officials said at a Munich Security Conference forum this week.
Public support is central to defence planning
Officials at the forum said Russia’s hybrid pressure was weakening the options available to Nato planners before any open military conflict. A former British cabinet member said western governments had failed to explain the scale of the challenge, while a UK diplomat said successive prime ministers had not prepared voters for it.
The criticism comes as the UK government has not implemented a recommendation in its 2025 strategic defence review for a national conversation about Europe’s security threat and national resilience. Officials said ministers could face difficulty persuading voters to accept reduced welfare spending to fund defence.
Key points
- Nato planners may need to prepare for a relatively short conflict because officials doubt European public support for a prolonged war.
- The proposed E5 grouping would bring the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Poland into closer defence coordination.
- European countries are considering capabilities now supplied largely by the US, including integrated air and missile defence, deep precision strike and space-based early warning.
- US decisions on troop deployments that could leave Europe responsible for more of its conventional defence are expected in the next few months.
Political shifts complicate closer European coordination
The Munich Security Conference has promoted an E5 role for the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Poland as the US considers reducing its conventional defence commitments in Europe. The five defence ministers already meet, but discussions on jointly procuring major capabilities remain at an early stage.
Officials also expressed concern that support for populist parties could affect defence cooperation and next year’s elections in Poland, France and Italy. Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland and other populist parties are described in the material as sympathetic to Russia and supportive of ending the war in Ukraine.
Wolfgang Ischinger, chair of the Munich Security Conference, said Europe faced serious external threats and needed greater defence integration. He said the E5 could eventually include Ukraine in the context of a truce, citing Ukraine’s military strength and defence-industrial experience. For additional context, see “Berlin presses Europe to curb Russian holiday visas after alleged sabotage plot”.
Officials point to cyberattacks and political interference
Italy’s foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, said the country was facing daily cyberattacks and could not rule out Russian interference in its next national election. Defence minister Guido Crosetto said Russian activity operated through social media, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, databases and critical infrastructure.
The concerns were heightened after the German government blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig airport the previous month. The material says one suspected participant in the 4 August incident was identified as a Belarusian citizen holding a Russian passport who appeared to have entered Europe on an Italian tourist visa.
Crosetto also cautioned that Russia may be exploiting genuine economic grievances, including low wages and fatigue over the cost of the war in Ukraine. He said blaming every political problem on disinformation could obscure wider discontent.
What happens next
Washington’s decisions on troop deployments are expected in the next few months, while European officials are continuing to assess the effect of hybrid threats and upcoming elections on defence coordination.
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