What Sweden’s knife-edge election could mean for its next government

Swedish voters will go to the polls on Sunday in a closely contested general election that could produce either a centre-left coalition led by Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson or a right-wing government that brings the Sweden Democrats into power for the first time.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s Moderate Party wants to bring the Sweden Democrats formally into government after the party supported the governing coalition from outside the cabinet. The centre-left bloc has led recent polling, but its advantage has narrowed.

How the blocs are positioned

The right consists of the governing Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, alongside the Sweden Democrats. The four parties signed an agreement in 2022, allowing the Sweden Democrats to shape policy while remaining outside the cabinet. Read the context: Senate Democrats wargame possible election disruption scenarios.

The left is led by the Social Democrats and also includes the Left Party and Greens. The Centre Party could become a fourth partner. Swedish governments commonly rely on coalition agreements, compromises and minority arrangements rather than one party winning an outright majority.

Timeline

• Advance voting began on August 26.
• Polling stations are scheduled to open at 8am local time and close at 8pm local time on Sunday.
• Voters will cast ballots in national parliamentary, regional council and municipal council elections.

Migration remains the central dividing line

Immigration became a defining political issue after the 2015 refugee crisis, when 163,000 people arrived in Sweden—the country’s highest annual figure and the largest per-capita intake in the European Union that year. Sweden has since tightened migration, residency and citizenship rules, and the government began offering some migrants with residency permits about $36,000 to leave.

The Sweden Democrats want further restrictions, while the centre-left has also adopted a more restrictive position than in the past. Debate now focuses increasingly on integration. A government practice involving deportation orders for teenagers raised in Sweden was suspended in March and is being reformed after criticism of the policy. Related coverage: Trump asks Supreme Court to reinstate mail-in voting restrictions ahead of November elections.

Security, foreign policy and household finances

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped drive Sweden’s decision to join NATO in 2024. Political parties broadly support continued assistance to Ukraine, with disagreement centred on the level of spending and Europe’s wider defence role. The parties differ more sharply over policy toward Israel and the Palestinians.

Gang violence, the cost of living and welfare are also major campaign issues. The government points to tougher sentences, additional police resources and measures against criminal networks as shootings and deaths have fallen sharply this year compared with 2022. The left places greater emphasis on prevention, schools and social services.

After inflation and a prolonged downturn, the right is campaigning on tax cuts and work incentives, while the centre-left is promising investment in welfare and household finances. Healthcare debates include waiting times, staffing and access, although much delivery responsibility lies with Sweden’s regions.