Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc held a narrow projected lead with about 95 percent of districts counted, according to the Swedish Election Authority. The four opposition parties were projected to win 176 of the Riksdag’s 349 seats, compared with 173 for the four parties making up or supporting the current conservative-led government.
The result is not yet final: early votes and overseas ballots are due to be counted on Wednesday. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is seeking a second term after leading a centre-right coalition since 2022.
Why the result may take time to settle
A narrow opposition advantage does not automatically guarantee a change of government. If the left-leaning bloc finishes ahead, ideological tensions among its parties could make it difficult to assemble a governing coalition.
Kristersson could remain prime minister if the opposition wins only a thin majority but cannot agree on a government. The current conservative-led administration relies on the Sweden Democrats, which has neo-Nazi roots.
The Sweden Democrats lose ground but keep influence
The Sweden Democrats’ support fell from 20.5 percent in the 2022 general election to 17.5 percent, a three-percentage-point decline. It was the party’s first loss in voter backing since entering parliament in 2010. Read the context: What Sweden’s knife-edge election could mean for its next government.
The party nevertheless remains a dominant parliamentary force in a closely divided legislature. Its positions on strict asylum caps, easier deportations and tougher policing have also moved into the political mainstream, with both the centre-right coalition and the Social Democrats shifting rightward.
Social Democrats face a difficult path
Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats remained the largest party, but their 28.1 percent share was described as one of their weakest performances in more than a century. That result could complicate efforts to build a working majority.
What happens next
Early votes and overseas ballots are expected to be counted on Wednesday, when the parliamentary balance may become clearer.
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