Why Colombia’s ELN is bracing for a new military offensive

Colombia’s National Liberation Army, or ELN, says it is preparing to fight as president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella takes office on Friday promising to end peace talks and launch a new military...

Why Colombia’s ELN is bracing for a new military offensive

Colombia’s National Liberation Army, or ELN, says it is preparing to fight as president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella takes office on Friday promising to end peace talks and launch a new military offensive. The group’s Western War Front commander, who uses the name Yerson, said the ELN would go on the offensive wherever its leadership ordered it to, including in cities and rural areas.

The confrontation would open a new chapter in Colombia’s 62-year armed conflict. Peace negotiations pursued under outgoing president Gustavo Petro have stalled or collapsed with the ELN and other major armed groups, while security analysts say those groups have accumulated strength and resources.

At a glance:

  • The ELN says it has about 6,300 members, including armed fighters and unarmed supporters, across Colombia and Venezuela.
  • The Farc demobilised under a 2016 peace agreement; the ELN says it will not disarm until Colombia’s political and economic system is transformed.
  • De la Espriella has given armed groups one month to submit, and has promised stronger security cooperation with the United States and mega-prisons modelled on those in El Salvador.
  • In Chocó, the ELN and the Gulf Clan are competing for control of the San Juan River, local communities and resources including illegal gold mining and logging.

A hard-line change in government

De la Espriella, described in the source as a Trump-admiring millionaire and criminal lawyer who represented accused leaders of the AUC paramilitary group, is taking office with a security-first agenda. He has set armed groups a one-month deadline to submit or face consequences, and plans to deepen cooperation with the US.

Petro, a former guerrilla with the now-defunct M-19, was elected in 2022 on a promise of “total peace”. His government sought negotiations with armed groups on the left and right, including the ELN, the Gulf Clan and Farc dissidents. The talks have largely stalled or collapsed.

What is happening in Chocó

The Guardian visited an ELN camp in the Pacific department of Chocó, reachable only after hours of river travel. The group and the Gulf Clan are fighting for control of the San Juan River, its population and its resources. Armed Gulf Clan members stopped the boat carrying the journalists before saying they would remove the ELN from the area.

Yerson said the ELN taxes commercial activity in territory it controls. In Chocó, he identified illegal gold mining and logging as key sources of income, and acknowledged that the group taxes the drug trade while denying direct involvement in trafficking. The source also says the ELN carries out kidnappings for ransom.

Why the conflict remains unresolved

Colombia’s conflict began in the 1960s amid extreme land inequality and exclusionary politics. Guerrilla groups fought the state, later facing government forces allied with rightwing paramilitaries. Cocaine trafficking financed all sides, while the conflict killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions.

The Farc, once the country’s other major guerrilla organisation, demobilised in 2016. The ELN says the agreement delivered too little, points to the killing of former Farc combatants and insists that it will lay down its arms only after fundamental political and economic change.

The ELN’s stated military posture

Yerson said the ELN would not remain solely defensive. The source reports that a car bomb attributed to the group exploded outside a police station near the Venezuelan border the previous week, injuring 12 police officers and three civilians. Drone attacks have also become common, according to the report.

Yerson claimed the group targets only “legitimate objectives” and cited the 2019 suicide bombing at a Bogotá police academy, which killed 22 people, as a model. His claims about the ELN’s rules, recruitment and targeting could not be independently verified in the reporting.

Questions readers ask

How large is the ELN?

Security analysts cited in the source estimate that the ELN has about 6,300 members, counting armed fighters and unarmed support, distributed across Colombia and Venezuela.

Why did the ELN not follow the Farc into demobilisation?

The ELN says the Farc surrendered in exchange for too little and that former combatants were later killed. It says it will disarm only after Colombia’s political and economic system has been transformed.

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