United States allies in Asia are watching warily after Washington moved the USS George Washington, its last aircraft carrier in the region, from Japan to the Middle East. The carrier is being sent to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for nine months as the US-Israel war on Iran enters its sixth month.
Analysts said the redeployment could reduce US operational flexibility and weaken perceptions of American power projection against China, although the bulk of US forces remains in the Asia-Pacific region.
Why the carrier move matters
William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said the carrier deployment was part of a broader trend that was affecting the effectiveness of US-led regional deterrence against China.
The move follows reports that parts of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system were transferred from South Korea for use against Iran, while missile and munitions stockpiles were also drawn down to sustain the war. Reports about the USS Abraham Lincoln described food shortages, broken toilets and showers, unsanitary conditions and poor health; one sailor was reported to have tried to jump overboard.
Related coverage: China increases maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, signaling strategic containment.
Pressure around Taiwan and the Western Pacific
The carrier’s departure comes as Chinese naval activity has expanded beyond the First Island Chain, which extends from north of Japan through Taiwan and the northern Philippines to Borneo. China’s Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers have moved into the Western Pacific despite the defensive line’s original role in containing Beijing.
Yang said Chinese coastguard activity had increased since June in waters east of Taiwan that overlap with the exclusive economic zones of Japan and the Philippines. He said the operations were aimed at Taipei, Manila and Tokyo, while also testing the US response and its ability to react.
Most US forces remain, but allies may do more
Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist and security expert at the National University of Singapore, said allies and partners might worry that the shift westward would give China greater confidence to test them. He said the redeployment reduced some US operational flexibility, but allies could still take reassurance from the fact that most American forces remain in the region.
More context: Taiwan simulates an internet blackout as China tensions grow.
About 375,000 US military and civilian personnel assigned to the US Pacific Command are based in the Asia-Pacific region, including tens of thousands in South Korea and Japan. Chong described the carrier move as more symbolic of a strategy in which regional allies take a leading role in their own defence with US support.
Defence spending and the longer-term outlook
The US 2026 National Defense Strategy calls for greater burden-sharing with allies and partners to counter threats from China, North Korea, Russia and Iran. It also calls for European and Asian allies to raise military spending to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product and security-related spending to 1.5 percent by the 2030s.
South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have moved to increase defence spending. Taiwan announced an aim to raise defence spending by 18 percent in 2027, while Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr called for spending to reach 4 percent of GDP. Security experts Kei Koga and K Tristan Tang said the carrier deployment was concerning in the short term but did not establish a long-term US disengagement from Asia; Tang noted that US Amphibious Ready Groups remain in the region.
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