Panama could reduce the number of ships crossing the Panama Canal below 32 a day if rainfall does not ease drought conditions, the canal’s new administrator, Ilya Espino de Marotta, said. The latest reduction, to 32 daily crossings, is due to begin on September 15, after the limit fell from 36 to 34 on September 4.
Why further restrictions are being considered
The Panama Canal Authority depends on freshwater from the Gatun and Alajuela lakes to operate the locks that lift and lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. An average transit uses about 200 million litres of water, while water levels in both reservoirs have fallen as El Niño conditions developed.
Espino said the limits could fall to 29 ships a day, or a similar level, in February or March if the drought continues. She said rainfall in September, October and November would determine whether additional reductions are needed in January, February or March.
Ships are also facing a lower draft limit
The authority has reduced the maximum permitted draft from 15.2 metres to 14.6 metres. Because draft is the depth of water a vessel needs to float safely, the change may require some ships to carry less cargo when using the canal.
The canal handles about 5 percent of global maritime trade. Some vessels have recently paid more than $1m at auction for transit slots, adding pressure for shippers as alternative maritime routes face disruption. For additional context, see “Panama Canal sets new shipping limits as El Niño threatens water levels”.
A longer-term water project is planned
Panama is developing a reservoir on the Rio Indio in central Panama as a longer-term response. The project is intended to supply water for canal operations and more than half of the country’s population for the next 50 years, but completion is expected to take five to six years.
The current restrictions are not expected to reach the levels imposed during the 2023–24 drought, when daily crossings fell as low as 22. Espino said the new reservoir is intended to prevent the canal from needing to reduce drafts or transit numbers again.
What happens next
Rainfall during September, October and November will guide decisions on whether further transit reductions are needed in January, February or March. The government declared a nationwide state of emergency over El Niño on August 26.
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