A very strong El Niño is forecast to intensify in the coming months, and the event is likely to be the largest in at least 1,000 years, according to the latest World Meteorological Organization update. The extra heat is expected to help make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded, potentially breaking the temperature record by a substantial margin.
The WMO says the event’s effects will include extreme heat, floods and droughts continuing well into 2027. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the phenomenon as “supersizing before our eyes” as global temperatures are already rising because of fossil-fuel pollution.
Why forecasters expect an exceptional event
El Niño is a natural climate cycle in which changes in Pacific winds raise ocean temperatures and transfer large amounts of heat into the atmosphere. An ocean temperature anomaly above 0.5C is classified as El Niño. For additional context, see “Ocean temperatures set a new record as El Niño intensifies”.
Analysis of corals, tree rings and historical documents indicates that no El Niño in the last millennium reached the projected level, climate analyst Zeke Hausfather said. The WMO’s forecasts combine models from climate prediction centres around the world. Recent research also indicates that global heating is intensifying El Niño cycles, which can amplify climate impacts.
Key figures
- Ocean temperatures in the central El Niño region are 2.6C above the 30-year average.
- The anomaly is forecast to reach about 4C in November, based on the average of 14 models.
- Subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas were 8C above average during July and early August.
- The World Food Programme said in August that El Niño could push about 50 million people into acute hunger.
Wildfires, rainfall and food security
The developing event is already being linked to worsening wildfires in Indonesia and weakening monsoon rains in India. The WMO expects impacts to spread, including higher fire risk in Australia and more intense floods in South America. A related part of this story is covered in “Sea temperatures reached a July record during Europe’s extreme heat”.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said droughts, floods and other disruption were already affecting communities and economies and were expected to increase as El Niño strengthened. The World Food Programme’s estimate reflects the risk that worsening conditions will add to acute hunger, while climate-related extreme weather is also driving up food prices.
What happens next
The WMO says national meteorological and hydrological services are being mobilised to provide forecasts and services as the event intensifies, with major impacts expected to continue into 2027. The development of this issue can be followed in “Ocean temperatures hit a record high outside polar regions”.
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