Farmers and food producers across Europe warned on 4 August 2026 that extreme heat, drought and wildfires were cutting crop output, with olive oil prices expected to rise again. Damage has also affected cereals, vegetables, vineyards, orchards and other crops across several major producing regions. The immediate pressure is being felt in food supplies and production costs.
Olive oil remains expensive in UK shops after an earlier price surge, while growers and wholesalers report losses, earlier harvests and growing reliance on imports for some vegetables. The full effect of this season’s weather will depend on harvest volumes and conditions in the coming weeks.
Olive groves face a new price shock
Olive oil producers expect prices to increase again after drought, very high temperatures and fires damaged groves in Greece, Italy and Portugal. Trees that escaped the flames have still been exposed to ash and poor air quality, while heat has contributed to pests, disease, storms and smaller fruit. Prices had eased from a peak reached two years ago, when strong demand, hot and dry conditions, pests and disease pushed the market higher.
However, a one-litre bottle of extra virgin olive oil still cost more than £7 on average in UK stores, and prices had begun climbing again in recent months. Sarah Vachon, founder of the Citizens of Soil olive oil group, said prices could rise in autumn if weather conditions did not improve because less edible fruit would be available.
Walter Zanre, who leads the UK arm of Filippo Berio, said drought in Spain, the world’s main olive oil producer, could cause trees to shed fruit. The impact of an earlier harvest on next year’s production and prices remains under review.
Heat is reducing Europe’s wider harvest
Spain’s agriculture ministry forecasts that the country’s 2026-27 cereal crop will fall to just over 18. 5m tonnes, down from 24m tonnes the previous year. That estimate was made before wildfires caused further damage. Spain has invested heavily in irrigation, water storage and heat-tolerant varieties, but those measures have not removed the risks from drought.
The European Union has also lowered its projections for several crops. Expected sunflower output, important for cooking oils, is down 7% from the previous forecast, while grain maize is down 6%. Forecasts for potatoes and soya beans have each been reduced by 3%. France’s Légumes de France growers’ association said thousands of tonnes of produce worth tens of millions of euros had been lost.
Salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic and onions were among the affected products, and output for some crops could be cut by half because of insufficient rain. In Spain, the ASAJA agricultural trade body reported fire damage to orchards, vineyards, farmland and greenhouses, alongside heat and water stress affecting tomatoes and maize.
Early harvests create uncertainty for food buyers
French vineyards are also showing the effects of the heat. Grape growth has slowed in Champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy, raising the prospect of a smaller crop and an unusually early harvest. Champagne producers expect picking to begin around 15 August, roughly a month earlier than was usual several decades ago, while yields are forecast to be about 10% below last year.
UK food wholesalers say drought is forcing them to source staples such as iceberg lettuce and broccoli from Spain and other countries. Jason Bull of importer Eurostar Commodities said repeated heatwaves had accelerated winter harvesting, shortening the period in which grains develop and potentially reducing their size, quality and yields. Summer crops face greater danger during flowering as soil moisture falls and irrigation demand rises.
Not every producing region has suffered equally. Turkey benefited from a cool, wet spring and is expected to record strong winter crop yields. Italy’s wheat output for flour used in cakes and biscuits is forecast by the European Commission to rise 10%, while Romania has had better rainfall after several drought-hit years. The next harvest reports will show whether those stronger regional results can offset losses elsewhere and how much higher production costs reach consumers.
Also read: Severe Monsoon Rains Cause Widespread Flooding and Damage Across Asian Countries.
More context: Major Wildfires Spread Across Wales and England as Officials Warn of Exceptional Fire Danger.
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