Climate breakdown probably weakened the glacier whose collapse caused catastrophic flooding in Nepal and Tibet, according to the first scientific study of the disaster. Researchers said unusually warm conditions and long-term changes in the high-mountain environment acted as destabilising factors, but they did not identify climate change as the fundamental cause.
What the researchers found
A section of overhanging glacier and rock measuring about 200,000 sq metres fell from Langtang Lirung mountain on 26 August. The material dropped roughly 1,400 metres and released an avalanche of about 110m cubic metres of snow and ice. The impact registered as an earthquake and generated a freezing flood that travelled downstream at more than 110 mph. Related coverage: Glacial collapse leaves at least 165 dead after Nepal-Tibet flood.
The study found about 2C of warming since pre-industrial times in the area, including roughly 1.5C of warming in July and August. Those months in 2026 were the warmest recorded locally, reaching 5C above the 30-year average in the days before the collapse. The Himalayan freezing threshold has also risen by about 100 metres a decade since the 1980s, extending thaw conditions that can weaken permafrost-shaped slopes.
A compound disaster, not a single cause
Researchers said warming had already contributed to glacier retreat, removing stabilising ice near the collapse site and adding meltwater. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake in 2015 also contributed to slope failure, although its specific role in the August disaster could not be confirmed.
The resulting flood carried water, ice, rock and sediment through downstream communities, sweeping away homes, settlements, roads, bridges and other infrastructure. More than 1,300 people were killed and more than 5,000 remain missing, according to the study material. The researchers described rock avalanches of this size as rare, with an estimated frequency of about one event every 1,000 to 10,000 years.
Nepal seeks support for the destruction
Nepal has formally asked the UN loss and damage fund for financial support. The request requires evidence linking the destruction to the climate crisis, making the study’s assessment significant for the country’s claim. Read the context: Nepal asks UN for climate compensation after floods.
Foreign minister Shisir Khanal has called on major emitters including China and India to accept shared responsibility. Researchers and climate advisers said the findings showed limits to local adaptation and argued that steep cuts in global emissions were needed alongside fair support for vulnerable communities.
What happens next
Nepal’s request to the UN loss and damage fund will proceed through a process requiring proof of a link between the disaster and the climate crisis.
No comments yet. Start the discussion.