Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and fuel depots have caused shortages and long queues in parts of Russia, prompting residents near Kazakhstan to cross the border to buy petrol. The disruption is also straining fuel supplies in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Kazakhstan banned petrol exports in late May, but border guards have reported hundreds of attempts to smuggle fuel back into Russia using canisters, improvised tanks and fuel trucks. The cross-border activity has added pressure to a region already reliant on Russian fuel.
Why Russian fuel supplies are under pressure
The source report says Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries and fuel depots from annexed Crimea to the Baltic and western Siberia. A major source of petrol for Central Asia, the Omsk refinery in southwestern Siberia, stopped operating after attacks in early July damaged a crude distillation unit.
The disruption has left tens of millions of Russians facing fuel shortages, queues lasting hours and occasional confrontations at petrol stations. Residents in Russian regions bordering Kazakhstan have travelled, sometimes hundreds of kilometres, to fill their vehicles.
Related coverage: India sends gasoline to Russia as fuel shortages spread.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan face longer-term risks
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are particularly exposed because they previously obtained as much as 90 percent of their petrol from Russia. Kyrgyzstan began regulating petrol prices and asked other former Soviet states for help securing supplies. The government said it would provide at least half of the country’s needs after modernising its largest refinery, without giving a completion date.
By mid-August, Kyrgyzstan had spent about $11.4m subsidising petrol prices. Tajikistan, where domestic oil processing supplies only 0.5 percent of petrol consumed, has imposed limits of 20 litres per car at some stations and said its reserves would last at least 60 days. In mid-August, it signed an agreement with Iran for 2.5 million tonnes of oil, petrol and diesel.
What Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are doing
Kazakhstan has three large Soviet-era refineries, but petrol prices there rose 15.6 percent this year, according to the source report. The country remains a destination for Russian motorists seeking fuel despite the export ban.
More context: Ukraine Disrupts Russian Fuel and Electricity to Crimea, Deepening Energy Crisis.
Uzbekistan produces petrol equal to about two-thirds of its needs and has begun building a strategic reserve for autumn and winter. Its deputy energy minister said early last month that reserves would cover two or three months. The country’s switch toward compressed natural gas has also helped some drivers reduce their dependence on petrol.
What happens next
Kyrgyz energy experts cited in the source report said repairs at Russian refineries could take months or years because refinery equipment is difficult to replace. Tajikistan is seeking new oil sources with assistance from China, including seismic surveys intended to identify potential drilling sites by the end of the year.
Central Asian governments are also looking for alternative suppliers, but the source report says higher global prices could make replacement supplies more expensive. Sales of Chinese-made electric cars have risen sharply in the region; in Kazakhstan, electric-car sales grew 36-fold between 2022 and 2025, according to a Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center report cited in the source material.
Also read: Kazakhstan’s Oil Flow Slowed by Drone Strikes During Russia-Ukraine War.
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