Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled during the 60-day period covered by a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, but remained well below pre-war levels. Trade intelligence firm Kpler said 374 million barrels exited the Gulf during the period, equal to about 6.1 million barrels per day.
Exports through the Gulf averaged 2.3 million barrels per day from April until the MoU was signed on June 17. The agreement expired on Monday without a peace deal as negotiations between Washington and Tehran stalled.
How much did oil traffic recover?
Kpler said the 6.1 million barrels per day moved during the MoU represented about 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2025. More than half of the shipments took place during the agreement’s first three weeks.
Emmanuel Belostrino, Kpler’s head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data, said flows had become thinner and were re-accumulating behind the chokepoint by the end of the agreement.
Related coverage: Oil prices reach one-month peak as US-Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Why the agreement mattered for shipping
The MoU was announced on June 17 after diplomatic activity primarily facilitated by Pakistan. US and Iranian officials presented it as a step toward permanently ending the war, but its expiration came while attacks on commercial shipping continued in the strait, a major route for global energy supplies.
The UKMTO Operations Centre recorded five attacks on commercial vessels in the strait during the preceding week. One cargo ship reported being hit by an unknown projectile off Oman on Tuesday, killing one seafarer. INTERCARGO identified the deceased mariner as a crew member of the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity.
Fewer vessel transits and renewed market pressure
Preliminary Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showed 73 vessel transits through the strait from August 10 to 16, down from 91 the previous week. The strait had carried about one-fifth of global oil supplies before the war.
More context: European Commission advises suspension of methane fines during energy supply challenges.
At least 18 seafarers have been killed in attacks on commercial vessels in the region since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, according to the International Maritime Organization. No government or group claimed responsibility for the attack that killed the Minoan Dignity crew member.
Brent crude futures rose about 0.3 percent to $91.93 per barrel as of 06:00 GMT on Thursday. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said operators were likely to remain cautious until there was evidence of sustained safe passage and a more durable diplomatic framework.
Also read: Brent crude climbs as Strait of Hormuz deal remains uncertain.
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