The US Bureau of Reclamation has released a proposed 10-year framework for the Colorado River that could reduce California’s, Arizona’s and Nevada’s combined water allocations by up to 3 million acre-feet a year — roughly 40% of their supply.
The proposal is intended to guide operations while the seven basin states continue negotiating a longer-term agreement. It would require the lower-basin states to give up 1.25 million acre-feet in 2027 and 2028, with larger reductions possible depending on conditions.
What the federal proposal would do
The framework sets broad rules for the next decade, but operating guidelines would be decided every two years. It does not specify how the cuts would be divided among California, Arizona and Nevada.
The Bureau of Reclamation operates Lake Powell and Lake Mead, giving the federal government greater authority over water supplies in the lower basin. The proposal also seeks to encourage conservation by allowing water users to store conserved water in federal reservoirs and receive credits for it.
Why the river is under pressure
The Colorado River’s average flow since 2020 has been just over 10 million acre-feet a year, while the 1922 compact divided rights equally between the upper- and lower-basin states at 7.5 million acre-feet each. Average flows since 2020 are 32% below the previous century’s average.
Warm, dry conditions have reduced snowmelt and increased the amount of water absorbed by soil and plants. More than 70% of Colorado River water is used by agriculture, including alfalfa, hay and crops such as winter lettuce and leafy greens.
A stopgap with major legal and political obstacles
Experts described the proposal as a bridge rather than a permanent solution. More than 3 million acre-feet of cuts are considered necessary to bring the basin back into balance, and experts cited in the source material said even that amount might not be enough in very dry years.
The federal framework does not mandate cuts in the upper basin — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — although it seeks to encourage up to 200,000 acre-feet of savings there. State officials have objected to provisions they consider unacceptable, while disputes over responsibility for declining supplies could lead to lawsuits between basin states.
What happens next
The existing framework is due to expire in October. The federal proposal provides 2027 and 2028 as a period for the seven states to try to reach an agreement that distributes responsibility across the basin.
The stakes include water supplies for communities, farms and businesses, as well as infrastructure at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Lake Powell and Lake Mead recently reached their lowest combined levels since Lake Powell was built, and the water line at Lake Powell was reported to be 37 feet above the level at which Glen Canyon Dam would stop generating hydroelectric power.
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