The far-right Alternative für Deutschland has emerged as the winner of Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state election, according to initial exit polls, taking 44.5% of the vote. The Christian Democratic Union, led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, was on 18.5%. Votes were still being counted, and it remained unclear whether the AfD had secured an absolute majority.
The result was delivered after record turnout of 76.5% in the east-central state, where about 1.7 million people were eligible to vote. The AfD’s lead was larger than final pre-election polling had suggested, but its projected result appeared to fall short of the 45% or more sought by lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund.
Why forming a government is uncertain
The AfD has said Siegmund would not become state premier unless the party won an absolute majority, which he described as necessary to enact its programme. The party refuses to govern with another party.
The CDU and other mainstream parties have also ruled out forming a government with the AfD. That stance is known in Germany as the Brandmauer, or firewall, leaving the composition of the next administration unresolved while counting continues.
A major test for Merz and Germany’s political landscape
The election had been viewed as the biggest test so far for Merz, whose CDU has governed Saxony-Anhalt with two smaller parties since 2002. His coalition government with the Social Democrats has faced criticism over Germany’s weak economy and the continued rise of the AfD.
The AfD has made steady gains since entering the German parliament in 2017 and is now the leading opposition party. In national polling it has also overtaken the CDU, while the party is looking toward the next federal elections, scheduled for 2029 or 2033. For additional context, see “Why Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt election has minorities worried”.
What Siegmund has promised
If the AfD forms a government, Siegmund has promised an immediate remigration and deportation campaign, a ban on rainbow flags in schools and a halt to new windfarm construction. He has also proposed changing the state slogan from “Think Modern” to “Think German” and restoring the singing of the national anthem in schools.
The AfD’s classification in Saxony-Anhalt as “rightwing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has added to the election’s national significance. The German Economic Institute warned that the party’s immigration policy could be damaging for a state with an ageing, shrinking population that depends heavily on foreign workers.
What happens next
Final results will determine whether the AfD has reached the absolute majority that Siegmund has said is required for him to take power. Polling stations closed at 6pm local time, when the exit polls were released.
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