The Strait of Hormuz remains high risk for commercial shipping despite US President Donald Trump’s claim that the US Navy has removed or detonated all sea mines in the waterway. Analysts say key shipping lanes may be clear, but that does not show every mine has been removed or that vessels are safe from renewed attacks.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Wednesday that the strait remains closed, despite a temporary transit-route agreement with Oman. Iran and Oman have also agreed to a joint project to clear mines, according to a statement from the two countries.
What the US and Iran say about the waterway
Trump said on Tuesday that any ship or boat placing new mines would be “immediately and systematically destroyed”. The claim followed a US mine-clearing operation involving naval forces, space-based surveillance and underwater drones, according to Mark Hilborne, a senior lecturer in war studies at King’s College London.
Gharibabadi rejected the claim that all mines had been cleared, saying only Iran knows their locations and warning that US mine-detection vessels entering the area would be targets. The Joint Maritime Information Center reported a continued risk from drifting or uncharted mines, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre said mine-danger areas remained active.
Key points
- The US assessment concerns mines known to have been deployed in key shipping lanes, not a permanent guarantee that the entire strait is mine-free.
- Maritime authorities continue to warn of drifting or uncharted mines in and near the traffic separation scheme.
- War-risk insurance costs have risen from 1–3 percent of a ship’s hull value to 7.5–10 percent since the war began.
- Before the war, about 130 ships crossed the strait each day, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies from Gulf producers.
Why clearing shipping lanes does not remove every danger
Hilborne said there is strong reason to trust the US assessment that known mines in the main lanes have been cleared. But he distinguished between clearing monitored routes and proving that every mine has been removed or deactivated. Anchored mines can break free, leaving possible “ghost” mines outside the main lanes, while Iran retains the ability to deploy more. For additional context, see “Iran and Oman weigh a temporary shipping route through Hormuz”.
The threat also includes mines that are difficult to detect. Traditional moored contact mines explode when struck, while bottom mines can use magnetic or acoustic sensors to trigger an explosion as a vessel passes overhead. Maritime analysts estimate Iran has between 2,000 and 6,000 mines, many produced domestically.
Why insurers and shipowners may wait
Mine countermeasures are only one part of the decision facing shipping companies. The absence of a ceasefire and the possibility of renewed open warfare add uncertainty, while experts identify drones and anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles launched from mainland Iran as a greater continuing threat than mines.
A supertanker and its crude cargo can be worth about $300m. Hilborne said insurers would need a prolonged period of calm before lowering premiums, meaning a single mine-clearing announcement is unlikely to bring an immediate change in shipping costs or traffic.
Workarounds are emerging, but carry their own risks
Shipping companies have begun adapting through alternative arrangements. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s trading arm has reportedly offered to shuttle Iraqi oil cargoes through the strait in short trips before transferring them to other vessels outside the Gulf. Saudi Arabia is also moving toward ship-to-ship transfers and a government-backed insurance scheme, according to maritime analyst Alex Almeida of Ambrey. A related part of this story is covered in “Temporary Hormuz shipping corridor agreed, Iran says”.
Almeida said these arrangements can reduce insurance exposure for shippers, but transfer areas in the Gulf of Oman remain within range of Iranian missiles and drones. The unresolved confrontation between Washington and Tehran therefore continues to shape whether vessels return to pre-war traffic levels.
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