What Iran’s proposed Hormuz restricted zone would mean

Iran’s Hormuz plan: proposed boundaries, routes and enforcement

Iran says it plans to establish a restricted zone extending from the line of a US naval blockade toward the Strait of Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf. Tehran has not yet published precise boundaries or explained in detail what penalties ships would face, leaving the plan’s practical effect uncertain.

The proposal comes as Iran and the United States trade attacks involving ships and military forces around the waterway. Traffic is still moving through the strait, but at sharply reduced levels compared with before the conflict.

What Iran has announced

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the zone would be announced in the coming days. He said any ship entering it would be placed on Iran’s sanctions list, though Tehran has not specified what that designation would mean for vessels or their operators.

Rezaei also said Iran and Oman had agreed on maps for a new international corridor in Iranian and Omani waters, with Iran managing the route. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi previously described a temporary route whose entry and part of its exit would pass through Iranian territorial waters. Iran says it will commit to keeping the strait open only if the United States stops what Tehran describes as sabotage, threats and attacks. For additional context, see “What the latest US-Iran tanker attacks mean for the Strait of Hormuz”.

How the proposal fits existing shipping routes

Iran already requires vessels to use navigation routes it approves. A route published by Tehran in April runs closer to Iran’s coast than vessels travelled before the war, while Oman and the International Maritime Organization laid out a southern corridor in June intended to restore safe navigation.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps objected after the Liberian-flagged tanker Stoic Warrior used a route near the United Arab Emirates and Oman before passing around Oman’s Musandam Peninsula. The IRGC said Iran’s route was the only authorised one and warned that unauthorised passage was dangerous.

A 14-point memorandum of understanding signed in Geneva on June 17 had required the United States to end its naval blockade within 30 days. Iran had also pledged to clear mines and allow ships to pass without charge for 60 days, but the agreement expired after disputes over control of the waterway.

What is known about traffic and enforcement

The United States has not issued an immediate response specifically to the proposed zone. US Central Command rejected as “a total lie” an Iranian account that a US vessel had entered a restricted area and been attacked. The exchange followed US strikes on three Iranian oil tankers and Iranian attacks on tankers and a ballistic-missile launch toward US warships near Hormuz. A related part of this story is covered in “US military says tanker strikes followed Iranian missile attacks”.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said current passages averaged more than nine million barrels of oil a day. Including pipelines that bypass the strait, he estimated flows at two-thirds or more of pre-conflict levels. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre separately said 59 ships had passed through during the preceding 48 hours.

Other tracking figures indicated much lower vessel numbers: six crossings on one Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on the previous Monday, with a 10-day average of 13 vessels a day. Kpler reported an average of 10 commodity ships per day over 10 days, while more than 130 ships had crossed daily before the war.

Could Iran enforce a wider zone?

Iran has demonstrated that it can make passage dangerous: at least 19 seafarers have been killed and dozens of ships attacked since March. But whether Tehran could enforce a much broader zone, especially against vessels protected by the US military, remains unresolved.

Stephen Zunes, founding chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco, said Iranian ships and aircraft attempting to enforce the zone would be vulnerable to US attacks. He said the proposal could also serve as a warning to shipping companies or give Tehran leverage in negotiations over the route with Oman. The development of this issue can be followed in “At least 10 killed after tanker crashes in western Iran”.