No single power can be shown to have complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, but available shipping data indicates that vessels are more willing to openly defy the US route than Iran’s. Between August 1 and August 19, 2026, 83 of 236 ships publicly used the Iranian route, while only three used the Omani route and two used the former central route.
The data is incomplete because 148 ships—more than six in 10—either switched off their Automatic Identification System transponders or followed routes that could not be classified. Among 112 oil, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas carriers, 21 openly used the Iranian route and two formally used the Omani route, while 89 followed dark or unknown routes.
Two routes have emerged during the conflict
Before the war, ships generally followed established traffic-separation schemes through the central part of the strait. Navigation decisions were mainly shaped by port calls, charter terms and safety considerations.
The conflict has divided traffic between a northern route along Iran’s coast near Larak and Qeshm islands, which Tehran insists on, and a southern route closer to Oman, which Washington supports for commercial vessels travelling under US naval protection. The waterway lies within the maritime territories of Iran and Oman.
Related coverage: Why Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Threat Faces Legal Barriers.
Why ships are hiding their movements
Both Iran and the US have threatened and attacked vessels they say violated their navigation rules. The United Arab Emirates said on August 8 that Iran had attacked an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company tanker with a missile. ADNOC said 15 of its vessels had been hit by missiles and drones since the war began, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others, without assigning blame.
The US has also fired on vessels in the area. It said it used Hellfire missiles against an oil tanker travelling towards Iran’s Kharg Island after repeated warnings, and on August 11 said a Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged Vela Nova because it was attempting to break the US blockade of Iranian ports.
- Turning off transponders reduces the visibility of a vessel’s location and movements, although it raises safety and transparency concerns.
- Some operators use dark routing to conduct ship-to-ship cargo transfers away from public tracking.
- Some Iranian-linked shipments reportedly use the Omani route and altered documents to avoid sanctions and the US blockade.
What the figures say about influence
Because the routes of most vessels are unknown, the data cannot establish who controls the strait. It does show that 35 percent of all ships openly used the Iranian route, compared with only a handful that publicly used the Omani or pre-war routes. For energy carriers, one-fifth openly used the Iranian route despite the US blockade and threats.
More context: Trump says no Iran talks are planned amid Hormuz standoff.
Energy policy researcher Marc Ayoub said Iran still retains significant capacity to control maritime traffic. Chatham House associate fellow Neil Quilliam said Iran can still disrupt shipping, although alternative logistics, ship-to-ship transfers and stronger regional maritime security measures limit its influence.
Why the strait matters to the wider war
Before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies and about 130 ships a day. Iran closed the waterway in early March, allowing only vessels it considered friendly to pass, and later signed a memorandum of understanding with the US on June 17.
The US blockade of Iranian ports and the competing route demands have made shipping through Hormuz a central obstacle in negotiations over a lasting peace plan. The crisis has also contributed to energy shortages and higher oil prices: Brent crude rose from about $66 a barrel before the conflict to more than $100 on several occasions, reaching $119 in March, and stood at $92.90 on Thursday morning.
Also read: Iran weighs return to US talks as Hormuz conditions remain unresolved.
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