More than 23 weeks into the war on Iran, United States President Donald Trump has signalled that he prefers economic pressure on Tehran over returning to a military offensive, despite warning last week of possible catastrophic strikes.
The shift comes as a US naval blockade tightens its grip on Iranian ports, oil exports have been sharply constrained and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Iran and Oman say they are close to an agreement on managing the waterway, while Trump says the US is only “semi-negotiating” with Iran and Tehran denies direct talks with Washington.
What changed in Washington’s approach
Trump told Axios on Sunday that the US was “low-keying it” and said he wanted to hit Iran economically. That marked a change from his statement the previous week that Iran had “one last chance” to make a deal or face catastrophic strikes.
Vice President JD Vance said the administration was using diplomatic, economic and military tools to seek what he called the best outcome for the American people. Trump also said Iran was in very bad financial shape, pointing to high inflation and difficulties paying its soldiers.
Related coverage: Iran uses ceasefire to rebuild military strength while Hormuz deal remains uncertain.
How the blockade is affecting Iran
The US has maintained a naval blockade against Iranian ports since mid-April, with the stated aim of reducing oil exports and cutting oil revenue. Iran’s oil exports had been estimated at about 1.5 million barrels per day before the restrictions, while Iranian authorities have reported near-zero crude exports since the blockade tightened.
The US military’s Central Command said on Saturday that it had redirected 53 commercial vessels, boarded two and disabled two others. Iran says the economic damage is compounded by structural problems, mismanagement, years of sanctions and war-related infrastructure damage. Tehran has asked the US to compensate it for those losses as a condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Why negotiations remain uncertain
Mehran Kamrava, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said US-Iran negotiations were progressing very slowly and questioned whether economic pressure would succeed. He said Iran was also trying to pressure Gulf countries hosting US military assets by using missiles and drones, with the aim of encouraging them to press Washington to negotiate.
More context: Hormuz reopening remains out of reach as Iran issues demands.
The Strait of Hormuz is central to the standoff. A memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the US on June 17 set out plans to reopen the strait and begin a 60-day negotiation period, but it unravelled within days over disagreements about management of the waterway. The document referred to the eventual lifting of US sanctions and a reconstruction fund, but did not specifically resolve US demands over Iran’s ballistic-missile programme or regional armed groups.
Domestic and military pressures on the United States
The war is unpopular in the US as Trump and congressional Republicans seek to defend narrow majorities in November’s midterm elections. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that about 35 percent of Americans approved of the war, while registered voters preferred the Democrats’ approach to handling war and terrorism over the Republicans’ by 37 percent to 36 percent.
Several US media reports have described pressure on American munitions stockpiles, including air-defence interceptors. The Pentagon has asked the defence industry to accelerate weapons production, although Jarred Conley, a senior Defense Innovation Unit official, told Al Jazeera that the US had sufficient munitions to sustain current operations.
Also read: Iran-Oman Talks Show Progress on Strait of Hormuz Shipping.
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