Yemen is experiencing its most serious fighting since a United Nations-brokered truce halted eight years of war in 2022. The internationally recognised government has launched counterattacks against the Houthi rebels, while the Houthis have claimed battlefield gains and attacked Saudi Arabia, which supports the government.
Fighting intensified on Monday in Taiz, al-Bayda and al-Jawf, a major gateway towards the Houthi-controlled capital, Sanaa. Analysts caution that the renewed campaign is more likely to become a prolonged conflict than produce a quick victory.
How the latest escalation unfolded
Tensions rose in July after government forces said they had attacked the Houthi-controlled airport in Sanaa, preventing an aircraft from Iran from landing. Further attacks followed, before the Houthis launched a major offensive last week towards al-Makha, also known as Mocha, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The government’s campaign follows its earlier success in taking areas in southern Yemen from the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, a separatist group. Since then, it has sought to present anti-Houthi forces as a more unified force operating under one military chain of command. For additional context, see “Saudi Arabia threatens retaliation after Houthi strikes”.
Key points
- The government is seeking to retake Sanaa and ultimately restore control across Yemen.
- The Houthis launched a major offensive through western Taiz and southern Hodeidah towards al-Makha and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
- Both sides are competing for influence around Bab al-Mandeb, a key shipping route between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
- Analysts say government-aligned forces are better resourced and coordinated, but describe the Houthis as a formidable military force.
Why the Red Sea matters
Bab al-Mandeb has become a central objective for the government and its Saudi supporters. The waterway links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, and the Houthis have declared a blockade against Saudi vessels using it. The government says securing the strait would place the route under central Yemeni control.
The Houthis have conducted regular attacks on Red Sea shipping since 2023 and, according to analyst Mohammed al-Basha, have the capacity to threaten commercial and military vessels across the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and parts of the Arabian Sea. Analyst Khaled Batarfi warned that simultaneous disruption of Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz could become a major international energy and trade security problem. A related part of this story is covered in “Government warplanes strike Houthi positions in Yemen fighting”.
Why a quick resolution is unlikely
Analysts say regional conflict has created an opportunity for the Saudi-backed government to challenge the Houthis. The wider confrontation involving the United States, Israel and Iran has increased Yemen’s strategic importance, while Houthi attacks on Saudi territory risk turning the internal war into a direct Saudi-Houthi security crisis.
The Houthis could retreat into their northern heartland around Saada, Hajjah, Sanaa and neighbouring governorates if pushed back, creating two more clearly defined territorial blocs. Analysts compare that possible outcome to a prolonged and costly conflict rather than a rapid collapse of Houthi defences. The development of this issue can be followed in “Civilians killed as fighting intensifies across western Yemen”.
What happens next
Analysts expect the fighting to move towards a larger-scale war in the coming days, with the government activating multiple fronts and shifting from a defensive posture to an offensive one.
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