Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 43 percent to 40 percent in a simulated runoff ahead of October’s presidential election, according to a new Quaest poll. The two-point margin of error makes the result a statistical tie.
The poll, conducted from August 10 to 13 among 2,004 people, shows Lula’s advantage narrowing sharply from the previous Quaest survey, which recorded a five-point lead on August 5. Lula led Bolsonaro 44 percent to 39 percent in that poll.
What the first-round numbers show
Lula holds a wider lead in the first-round scenario, with 38 percent of respondents compared with 31 percent for Bolsonaro. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4 percent, while Romeu Zema polled at 2 percent.
Brazilian electoral rules provide for a runoff if no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes in the first round. The top two candidates then advance.
Related coverage: Alfredo Gaspar joins Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket for Brazil’s October election.
Why Flavio Bolsonaro is the leading challenger
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has become the right’s standard-bearer after his father was barred from running. Brazil’s top electoral court found that the former president had abused his power while in office, and he was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.
How Lula is framing his campaign
Lula launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, presenting himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty amid pressure from the administration of United States President Donald Trump.
He pledged to increase defence spending and protect Brazil’s reserves of rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control. Lula has also warned Trump against interfering in Brazil’s election, as Trump maintains close ties with the Bolsonaros.
More context: Argentine President Javier Milei claims US Democrats and Brazil back campaign against Argentina at World Cup.
Also read: Keiko Fujimori sworn in as Peru’s president after tight election victory.
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