A four-tonne upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to hit the Moon at about 06:35 GMT on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. The discarded stage is forecast to strike near Einstein crater at roughly 5,400 mph, or 8,700 km/h.
The collision is not expected to threaten Earth. Instead, it should excavate a new lunar crater and send dust and rock into space, giving NASA and other researchers a closely tracked example of an artificial impact on the Moon.
At a glance:
- The object is the second stage of a Falcon 9 launched on January 15, 2025, toward the Moon.
- The predicted impact site is near Einstein crater on the Moon’s western limb.
- The impact should produce a crater measured in tens of feet, though estimates vary by model.
- NASA and lunar-orbiting spacecraft are expected to seek before-and-after observations.
What is going to hit the Moon
The object is the school-bus-size second stage of a Falcon 9 that launched lunar spacecraft in January 2025. The mission carried Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost lander and another privately developed lunar lander. After delivering its payload, the stage remained in space rather than returning through Earth’s atmosphere.
Project Pluto tracking data identifies the object as 2025-010D, also listed as NORAD 62719. Its published prediction places the impact at 06:35:12 GMT on August 5, 2026, at about 19.1 degrees north latitude and 266.9 degrees east longitude on the Moon.
Why the stage ended up on a collision course
Falcon 9 upper stages normally re-enter Earth’s atmosphere or are directed toward another disposal path after completing their work. A lunar mission requires more energy than a typical low-Earth-orbit launch, leaving the stage in a high, Moon-crossing orbit after it released its payload.
SpaceX said the stage was placed on a trajectory intended to meet applicable safety requirements, but it could not later be controlled. Solar activity and changing gravitational forces gradually altered its path, according to SpaceX executive Julianna Scheiman. Astronomers only recognized the lunar-impact trajectory earlier in 2026.
What scientists expect to observe
The impact will occur near Einstein crater, close to the Moon’s western limb as viewed from Earth. Models cited by NASA and independent researchers predict a crater several dozen feet wide and several feet deep, with the collision ejecting dust and fragments across the surrounding surface.
The flash itself may be difficult or impossible to see with the naked eye, but sunlight could illuminate the debris plume. NASA plans to look for observation opportunities before and after the event, while lunar orbiters including the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri may help image the site.
Why an accidental lunar impact matters
This will be only the second known accidental crash of a discarded rocket stage into the Moon. A Chinese rocket segment struck the lunar far side in March 2022. NASA deliberately crashed the LCROSS spacecraft and its upper stage in 2009 to study material thrown up from a permanently shadowed region.
Researchers say the event offers a controlled target with a known object, speed and predicted location, unlike most natural meteoroid impacts. The observations could improve estimates of crater formation and ejecta, while also informing planning for future lunar missions and the disposal of hardware near the Moon.
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