Reports of men being forced into vehicles and pressured to sign military contracts in Penza have intensified fears that Russia could launch a new mobilisation campaign. Local authorities deny the reports and say officials are approaching only men who are already subject to mobilisation and trying to evade it.
The reported incidents come as Russia’s recruitment pool is said to be shrinking and amid expectations of a winter offensive in Ukraine. No new nationwide mobilisation has been announced in the supplied material.
What has been reported in Penza
Since June, footage shared on social media has appeared to show plainclothes individuals trying to force fighting-age men into vehicles bound for recruitment centres in Penza, about 625km southeast of Moscow. Women are shown attempting to intervene. Other reports allege that potential recruits were summoned to police stations under bureaucratic pretexts and then beaten or threatened into signing contracts.
Penza authorities reject the allegations, saying the people being approached are men who have already been mobilised but are attempting to evade the draft. They have also accused residents who circulated the footage of spreading disinformation.
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Why the reports are causing anxiety
Sasha, a 26-year-old from Orenburg who has a Category V military ID and would normally be ineligible for service, said he and his girlfriend have experienced a severe decline in mental health since mid-2025. He told the source report that he avoids going outside unless necessary and carries pepper spray. He asked to be identified only by his first name.
Mikhail Liberov of the Conscientious Objectors Movement said recruiters target people vulnerable to deception, blackmail or pressure, including migrants, people with addiction or mental-health problems, heavily indebted people and those who do not understand Russian well. Oleg Ignatov of the International Crisis Group said the Penza cases were likely isolated attempts by local authorities to meet recruitment quotas rather than evidence of a nationwide operation.
What is known about a possible mobilisation
Russia’s September 2022 decree authorising partial mobilisation remains in effect, but the supplied material does not report a new mobilisation decree. That 2022 effort effectively ended after two months, while Russia later replenished its forces through prison recruitment and financial incentives for military contracts.
More context: Macron pledges faster French missile deliveries as Ukraine faces intensified Russian attacks.
Independent Russian reporting cited in the source material said voluntary military contracts had fallen by half by late 2025. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian lawmaker Andrey Gurulev have both raised claims or calls linked to a possible large-scale mobilisation, but the material also says expanding the army would be costly and would not immediately solve shortages of experienced officers and trained specialists.
An alternative for some eligible men
Russia’s constitution allows people whose convictions or religious beliefs contradict military service to apply for alternative civilian service. The supplied material says conscripts can serve 21 months at organisations under executive authorities, or 18 months at a defence manufacturing plant.
The Ministry of Defence says about 2,000 people apply each year and approximately half are approved. Vladimir, a 35-year-old former conscript from Ulan-Ude, said he is preparing for a possible draft and would seek alternative civilian service if the conflict escalates.
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