German state election tests the AfD’s path to power

Voters in Germany’s eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt will vote on Sunday in an election that could make the Alternative for Germany (AfD) the first far-right party to take power at state level since World War II.

Recent surveys put the AfD at 40 percent, ahead of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 23 percent. The result is not guaranteed, but the AfD could win an absolute majority if several smaller parties fail to cross the 5 percent threshold for entry into the state parliament.

What happens if no party wins a majority

A CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is described as the most likely outcome if the AfD falls short of an absolute majority. Coalition negotiations would then determine how the state is governed.

Timeline

• Initial results are expected at about 16:00 GMT, or 6pm local time, on Sunday.
• Coalition talks could last for weeks, depending on which parties clear the 5 percent threshold.

Why the election matters beyond the state

AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund has presented an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt as a route to national victory in the 2029 federal elections. Such a result would also allow the party to bypass the mainstream parties’ “firewall” policy of refusing to cooperate with it; the AfD has already overcome that barrier at the local level. For additional context, see “Tight Wisconsin race highlights divided Democratic primary voters”.

The CDU is led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose party is campaigning against an AfD that has led surveys in Saxony-Anhalt for months. At a rally in Lower Saxony a week before the vote, Merz said politicians needed to engage more effectively with the AfD and address both political issues and their choice of words.

Thousands of people also gathered at a democracy festival the night before the election. Organisers estimated attendance at between 15,000 and 20,000 people. A related part of this story is covered in “Senate Democrats wargame possible election disruption scenarios”.

What happens next

Voters will cast their ballots on Sunday, with initial results expected at about 16:00 GMT, or 6pm local time. The composition of the next state government will depend on which parties pass the 5 percent threshold and whether the AfD wins an absolute majority.