Governments across Asia are accelerating preparations for an exceptionally strong El Niño expected to intensify toward the end of 2026 and into 2027, bringing heightened risks of extreme heat, drought, heavy rain, storms, wildfires and food shortages.
The World Food Programme has warned that about 50 million people could be pushed into acute hunger. UN secretary-general António Guterres said the weather pattern was “being supersized before our eyes” as it develops alongside human-driven climate change.
Water and food systems face the sharpest pressure
India has recorded a September monsoon rainfall shortfall of almost 50% in some areas, affecting rice, pulses, cotton and maize. Authorities in more than 350 vulnerable districts are expanding water conservation and harvesting infrastructure while encouraging low-water, short-duration crops such as pulses and millets. Read the context: European Heat and Drought Put Olive Oil and Food Crops at Risk.
Sri Lanka is experiencing its worst drought in a decade. Reservoirs have run dry, water tankers are supplying ponds in Yala national park, and thousands of fish have died in Mullaithivu lagoon because of a lack of fresh water. Officials are considering seawater processing if freshwater sources disappear, although the country’s single desalination plant is not considered workable for that need.
Southeast Asia prepares for higher food prices
Regional rice yields are projected to fall by 8% to 10%. Governments and farmer cooperatives are promoting regenerative agriculture, biofertilisers, adjusted planting calendars and water management, but experts warn that measures used during the 2023–2024 El Niño may not be sufficient amid disrupted energy and supply chains, higher fertiliser costs and seasonal haze from fires in Malaysia and Indonesia.
The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are especially exposed to food-price changes. Climate and food-security expert Elyssa Kaur Ludher said food spending can account for up to 50% or more of income for Indonesians, compared with under 10% in Singapore, making price increases disproportionately difficult for lower-income households.
Heat and storms are driving new emergency measures
South Korea’s weather agency has overhauled its heatwave alert system for the first time in 18 years. The new highest tier triggers guidance to stop non-emergency outdoor work when feels-like temperatures reach 38C, while officials are also monitoring unusually warm seas and the prospect of stronger storms in the north-west Pacific. Related coverage: Sea temperatures reached a July record during Europe’s extreme heat.
Japan has introduced the term “kokushobi” for days above 40C and is preparing for potentially destructive typhoons. Residents are being urged to follow evacuation warnings, stock food and water, and secure items such as flower pots and furniture. Authorities have also identified high-risk highway underpasses for preventive closure during heavy rain.
What happens next
Officials and residents are continuing preparations as the El Niño is expected to strengthen toward the end of 2026 and into 2027, including updated warnings, emergency exercises, water measures and storm precautions.
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