Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has announced a 15% increase in Bolsa Família payments for poor families, alongside a promise to provide free weight-loss injections through the public health system. The payment change is due to begin on 19 October, shortly before a likely runoff election on 25 October.
Lula faces far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the 4 October presidential election. Bolsonaro’s son has accused the incumbent of trying to buy poor voters, while the latest poll still showed Lula numerically ahead despite a technical tie.
Why the announcement is contested
Lula said the payment change is an inflation adjustment intended to protect the purchasing power of vulnerable families. Critics have focused on its timing, coming close to an election in which the incumbent has faced a stronger challenge from Flávio Bolsonaro. Read the context: Brazil’s Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro launch rival presidential campaigns.
The dispute has also revived comparisons with Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 campaign. On the eve of that election, the former president raised the monthly payment by 50% and introduced temporary payments of up to £727 for taxi drivers and truck drivers, along with other benefits that critics called the “kamikaze” package. Related coverage: Alfredo Gaspar joins Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket for Brazil’s October election.
How the two welfare packages differ
Bolsa Família was created in 2003 during Lula’s first presidential term and became a central cash-transfer policy. Jair Bolsonaro kept the programme in place despite previously criticising it. Lula’s current increase is described by supporters as permanent and limited to inflation accumulated during four years without an adjustment.
Journalist Miriam Leitão and Victor Escobar, a researcher at the Laboratory of Parties, Elections and Comparative Politics, said both presidents had electoral incentives. Escobar nevertheless argued that Bolsonaro’s 2022 measures were more damaging from a budgetary perspective, and said an incumbent can be expected to use legal mechanisms to improve election prospects if the measures comply with the law.
What happens to the challenge
Renan Santos, another far-right candidate, has filed a case with Brazil’s electoral court seeking to suspend the increase until the next president takes office. The factual record does not state that the court has ruled on the request.
Flávio Bolsonaro has criticised the increase but has not filed a similar case, reportedly because of concern over how a legal challenge could affect voters who receive Bolsa Família. The planned free weight-loss injections are part of the wider package announced by Lula, but the available information does not specify their start date or eligibility rules.
What happens next
The payment increase is scheduled to take effect on 19 October, while the electoral court is being asked to consider whether it should be suspended until the president-elect takes office.
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