A powerful El Niño is developing in the central and eastern Pacific after water temperatures rose more than 2C above the threshold used by NOAA to classify the event as “very strong”, informally known as a super El Niño. It began developing in June 2026, is expected to peak by early 2027 and could persist through March-May 2027.
The pattern is typically associated with heavier rain in East Africa, parts of South America and the southern United States, while South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa often become drier. Warmer temperatures are expected across almost the entire planet.
Where heavier rain is most likely
East Africa is expected to receive heavier-than-usual rain between October and December. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre estimates a 90 percent chance of wetter conditions in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. Those rains can provide up to 70 percent of the region’s annual rainfall, so the increase also raises the risk of flooding.
In South America, wetter conditions are expected along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru in early 2027. The pattern is then expected to extend to southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina between September 2026 and January 2027.
Where drought, heat and wildfire risk may rise
El Niño is typically linked to drier conditions across South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa. India’s rainfall was 15 percent below average between June 1 and September 9, according to the India Meteorological Department, while Indonesia is facing a drier season and increased wildfire risk. Indonesia’s meteorological agency recorded 5,019 hotspots by late July, with Sumatra and Kalimantan at the highest risk.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects below-average rainfall in southern and eastern areas, alongside warmer temperatures that increase wildfire risk. The South African Weather Service expects below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the country through spring and summer.
What it could mean for food and temperatures
The World Food Programme warns that El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute hunger by the end of 2027. Eastern and Southern Africa and Latin America face the largest increases. The Food and Agriculture Organization says maize, rice and other rain-fed crops are especially exposed, with dry conditions threatening harvests from Southern Africa and the Sahel to South and Southeast Asia. Read the context: European Heat and Drought Put Olive Oil and Food Crops at Risk.
El Niño usually raises global temperatures, with its largest effect often felt the year after the pattern develops. The World Meteorological Organization expects warmer-than-normal conditions almost everywhere from September to November. Its forecast also gives an 86 percent chance that at least one year between now and 2030 will be hotter than 2024, which was the hottest year on record. Related coverage: Ocean temperatures set a new record as El Niño intensifies.
Snow, storms and the limits of the forecast
In North America, El Niño can shift the jet stream south and farther east, steering storms across the continent’s southern third. NOAA scientists describe the pattern as a snowfall suppressant for much of the continent. Past El Niño winters brought below-average snowfall around the Great Lakes, interior New England, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, western Canada and Alaska, while the southern United States, particularly higher elevations, tended to receive more. NOAA stresses that these are historical patterns rather than a forecast and can vary considerably from year to year.
The connection is weaker in Europe. The United Kingdom’s Met Office expects a higher chance of wetter, stormier conditions in northwest Europe in autumn and early winter, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has linked El Niño with colder late winters in Northern Europe.
A strong El Niño usually reduces Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA’s August outlook put the chance of a below-normal season at 75 percent, while warning that no two El Niño events are identical. The WMO says the event’s strength does not directly determine the size of its effects in any one region because conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans also influence local outcomes.
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