Forecasts indicate that the 2026–27 El Niño could become the strongest on record. The UK Met Office says equatorial Pacific temperatures could reach 3C above normal when the event fully develops in late 2026 or early 2027, compared with the typical 1C to 2C rise during an El Niño episode.
The developing event is being monitored with satellites and Pacific Ocean buoys that measure temperatures, currents and winds. Scientists caution that weather outcomes remain uncertain, but say a major El Niño unfolding on a warmer planet could intensify heat, drought, floods and fires.
How El Niño is developing
Anchovies normally gather in large shoals off Peru and Chile, where they feed in cold, nutrient-rich water. When Pacific trade winds weaken or reverse, a warm current can replace that water and cause the fish to disappear. The phenomenon was named El Niño de Navidad, or “The Christmas Child”, because the warm water arrives around Christmas.
The 2026–27 event is also coinciding with a large marine heatwave. That combination is raising concern about impacts on food systems, biodiversity and the livelihoods of fishermen and farmers, as well as the many people who depend on agriculture for food. For additional context, see “El Niño forecast to intensify as UN warns of global impacts”.
Key points
- The event is linked to weakening or reversing easterly Pacific trade winds and warmer water moving towards the South American coast.
- Models indicate the peak will come from December to February, overlapping with the main planting and crop-development season in South America.
- Southeast Asia and South America are expected to be particularly affected, while parts of Africa could face drought and others flooding.
- A Citigroup economist group estimates a super El Niño could cause as much as $7 trillion in global economic losses over five years.
Uneven impacts across regions and industries
El Niño can produce sharply different outcomes. It can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others, while also weakening summer monsoons and intensifying extreme heat. The World Meteorological Organization says the event requires exceptional preparation and response.
The agricultural effects are also expected to vary. Morgan Stanley says wetter conditions could help yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, while other parts of Brazil could experience irregular rainfall and delayed planting. El Niño can reduce the number and size of Atlantic hurricanes and bring useful rain to some drought-affected areas.
The World Food Programme has warned that climate shocks could increase hunger as food systems face other pressures. It forecasts that 274 million people could face acute hunger by the end of 2027, 49 million more than current levels. A related part of this story is covered in “Ocean temperatures set a new record as El Niño intensifies”.
Risks to health, wildlife and global temperatures
Health risks could include malaria and dengue outbreaks, particularly where sanitation and healthcare systems are already under pressure. The WMO says extreme heat could compound water scarcity, dust, wildfires, smoke and flash floods, with consequences including heat deaths, respiratory illness and waterborne disease.
Marine ecosystems are already showing signs of stress. The loss of baitfish such as anchovies and sardines could affect seals and sea lions, while seabird deaths have been reported along eastern Pacific coasts from California to Ecuador.
The Met Office says large El Niño events release more heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. Climate scientist Nick Dunstone said 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record, although the strength and effects of the developing event remain forecast-based. The development of this issue can be followed in “Europe’s 2026 marine heatwaves linked to carbon pollution”.
What happens next
Scientists are continuing to assess the event through satellite observations and buoy data as forecasts develop toward the projected late-2026 or early-2027 peak.
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