Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are voting in elections that could determine how long Friedrich Merz remains leader of Germany’s governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is expected to gain support again, although polling indicates it will fall well short of winning either state outright.
The elections come two weeks after the AfD recorded its strongest-ever result in a regional poll in Saxony-Anhalt. A severe setback for the CDU could fuel efforts to replace Merz before Germany’s next general election, due in 2029, or revive discussion of snap elections, though both outcomes are currently considered unlikely.
When voting takes place and what is at stake
Polling stations open at 8am local time on Sunday and close at 6pm, when exit polls are expected. About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in Berlin and nearly 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Merz has rejected calls to resign and says his government was elected for four years. He has pledged to use that period to pursue a package of economic and social welfare changes that he considers essential to Germany’s future. He cancelled a planned appearance at the United Nations general assembly in New York because, according to a government official, he needed to remain in Berlin after the elections. Read the context: Why Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt election has minorities worried.
Different contests, shared pressure on the CDU
In Berlin, the CDU is competing with the far-left Die Linke for first place. Die Linke is campaigning for the expropriation of corporate landlords as a response to rising housing costs. Around 85% of Berlin households rent their homes, while advertised rents have nearly doubled since 2014.
Berlin’s incumbent mayor, Kai Wegner of the CDU, abandoned his re-election bid in July after controversy over his decision to play tennis during a power blackout that affected large parts of the capital. Stefan Evers, the city’s chief finance official, replaced him as the CDU candidate but has not improved the party’s polling position. The AfD is polling in third or fourth place even in the capital.
A sharper danger in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
The AfD and the Social Democrats are in a close contest in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the CDU risks recording its first single-digit result there in 75 years. Falling below the 5% threshold for representation would keep the party out of the state parliament and produce an unprecedented postwar setback for the CDU.
The AfD narrowly missed an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, which would have enabled it to govern alone. It is seeking defections from other parties to become the first far-right force to run a German state since the Nazi period, but the polling in Sunday’s elections does not indicate that it will achieve that goal. Related coverage: Exit poll puts AfD ahead in key German state election.
Why the result could affect Merz
Merz’s personal approval rating has fallen to 10%, while his credibility has been damaged by campaign promises to restore economic growth and reduce the AfD’s influence. The party remains the largest opposition force in parliament and leads national opinion polls.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, said he still expected Merz to complete his term but estimated that the risk of a CDU revolt replacing him had risen from 20% to about 35% in 10 days. He linked the increased risk partly to higher global petrol prices and voter anger.
Improved economic indicators have not offset the effects of high living costs and deindustrialisation in sectors including car manufacturing. A reduction in new arrivals at the border has also failed to win back AfD voters, who have focused on economic anxiety, crime concerns and opposition to Merz’s strong support for Ukraine.
What happens next
Merz and his allies are expected to watch the exit polls when voting closes at 6pm local time on Sunday; the results will determine the immediate scale of pressure on his leadership.
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