Iran warns of heavier retaliation as US blockade strains oil exports

Iran warns of heavier retaliation as US blockade strains oil exports

Iran has threatened faster and heavier attacks against US interests after US Central Command said it struck three Iranian crude oil tankers amid a months-long naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports. Tehran says the attacks have ended the era of proportionate retaliation, while the US says Iranian missile attacks on its warships were evaded.

The confrontation is also disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian authorities saying the waterway remains closed and the United States saying more vessels have recently transited under its guidance.

What the US and Iran say happened at sea

US Central Command released video showing three Iranian crude oil tankers being hit: one near Kharg Island, another near Jask and a third in the Gulf of Oman. The command said the first two were permanently disabled and the third sank.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps later released video that it said showed explosives-laden projectiles striking multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC also said a US-built sea drone was hit while attempting to enter Iranian waters and that ballistic missiles were fired towards a US aircraft carrier and another warship. The IRGC said both vessels were damaged, while US Central Command said the attacks were evaded. For additional context, see “Why the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global shipping”.

The competing accounts over the blockade’s effect

US officials say shipping through the strategically important waterway has increased in recent weeks and on some days approached pre-war levels. Iranian authorities say the strait remains closed and have confirmed they have been unable to move crude oil past the US warships enforcing the blockade.

TankerTrackers said Middle Eastern crude exports in August fell by 7.2 million barrels per day from the January-February baseline. It estimated Iran’s baseline exports of 1.68 million barrels per day could remain at zero for the foreseeable future, depending on any agreement. A related part of this story is covered in “What the latest US-Iran tanker attacks mean for the Strait of Hormuz”.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said up to 90 million barrels were exported during the period covered by a June memorandum of understanding with the United States. Some Iranian oil is being held in floating storage outside the blockade and sold gradually at a discount to China despite US sanctions.

Why the oil dispute matters for Iran

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said about 30 million barrels of Iranian crude remained for China to buy and would run out soon. Washington has described the blockade and sanctions as a combined effort to reduce Iran’s regional trade and isolate the country. The development of this issue can be followed in “What is really moving through the Strait of Hormuz?”.

Iranian officials have not said how long oil sales can continue or detailed alternative routes. Experts cited in the report said overland and rail routes can carry limited refined products, fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas, but cannot replace the volumes moved by very large crude carriers through the Strait of Hormuz.

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