Six months into the United States-Israel war on Iran, traffic through the 33km Strait of Hormuz has fallen from more than 100 vessels a day to about five. The nearly 95 percent drop has disrupted oil, gas and goods shipments worldwide.
The strait remains, in effect, closed. From July 15 to August 23, the small number of vessels crossing mostly consisted of tankers travelling under naval escort or with their tracking systems switched off.
A chokepoint with no full maritime alternative
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the Middle East’s main gateways for energy shipments. In the week before the war began, flows through it represented about 38 percent of global crude oil, 29 percent of liquefied petroleum gas and 19 percent of liquefied natural gas.
Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers, said the strait differs from other maritime chokepoints because there is no alternative sea route. Pipelines provide some capacity, but not a substitute for the waterway’s cargo volumes. For additional context, see “Iran and Oman weigh a temporary shipping route through Hormuz”.
Key points
- About 80 percent of global trade by volume moves by sea.
- The strait carries more than one-third of global seaborne crude oil and nearly one-third of liquefied petroleum gas flows.
- Gulf crude exports fell 47 percent from about 17 million barrels a day in 2025 to roughly nine million barrels a day in August 2026.
- Oil prices were about 20 percent higher than before the war after reaching more than $130 a barrel in April.
Oil and port movements have shifted
Direct crude exports through the strait have averaged about 2.2 million barrels per day, according to Kpler. Analysts cited by Reuters estimate that five to seven million barrels of Gulf oil a day are being disrupted.
Shipping flows have moved towards the Red Sea and Southeast Asia. Singapore and Malaysia have become hubs for redirected energy, with Russia’s fuel-oil shipments to the two countries rising 2.5 times month-on-month in July.
Kuwait recorded an 86 percent fall in daily port calls, while the United Arab Emirates saw calls decline from 78 a day to 24. Qatar, Iraq and Bahrain recorded falls of about 66 to 68 percent. Saudi Arabia’s decline was 15 percent, supported by pipelines and access to Red Sea ports. A related part of this story is covered in “Temporary Hormuz shipping corridor agreed, Iran says”.
The disruption is reaching consumers
Countries that depend heavily on Gulf oil, gas and fertiliser face higher prices, longer shipping waits and pressure to find alternative suppliers. Eritrea and Madagascar each source about 90 percent of their oil from the Middle East; Pakistan sources 78 percent, while Japan and Kenya each source 77 percent.
Oil prices have risen about 20 percent from their pre-war level. Matthews said inventories had initially provided a buffer, but that buffer was being used up, leaving the next six months more vulnerable to volatility if conditions do not change. The development of this issue can be followed in “Hormuz shipping still faces risks after US mine-clearing claim”.
What happens next
The strait’s status and shipping conditions remain tied to the continuing conflict, the US blockade of Iranian ports and the temporary routes agreed by Iran and Oman.
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