Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have intensified sharply following the announcement of a US-backed roadmap intended to advance a ceasefire and stabilize the region. Despite the formal acceptance of the plan by Hamas, the reality on the ground starkly contrasts with the diplomatic optimism expressed by Washington.
On a single day last weekend, Israeli attacks killed at least 19 Palestinians, including women and children, raising the weekend death toll to 26. These strikes have continued despite the roadmap’s goal of phased disarmament and a reduction in hostilities, highlighting deep divisions and mistrust between the parties involved.
Roadmap and Rising Violence
The roadmap, developed by the Board of Peace and the International Stabilization Force (ISF), outlines a 15-point plan to implement the next phase of the ceasefire in Gaza. Hamas has formally agreed to the plan, which includes measures for disarmament under international or regional oversight. However, ongoing Israeli attacks have cast doubt on the sustainability of this agreement, with fears that Palestinian factions may eventually abandon the process.
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Eyad al-Qarra, a Palestinian political analyst based in Gaza, warned that if Palestinian groups withdraw from the agreement, Israel could exploit the situation to justify a broader military offensive. He emphasized the importance of Palestinian factions avoiding any actions that could be used to portray both sides as equally responsible for the failure of the ceasefire.
Israeli Government’s Hardline Stance
Contrary to the roadmap’s provisions, the Israeli government has imposed stringent conditions, demanding the complete disarmament of Hamas and insisting that weapons be handed over to a Western state rather than any Palestinian authority. Doron Spielman, spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas is fully demilitarized, complicating the peace process.
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Political analysts suggest that Netanyahu’s approach is influenced by domestic political considerations ahead of the October general elections. Mtanes Shehadeh, an expert on Israeli affairs, described Israel’s handling of the Gaza ceasefire as a tactical maneuver aimed at prolonging the conflict and obstructing meaningful progress without openly rejecting the roadmap.
Shehadeh added that Netanyahu’s government is likely to continue delaying implementation to avoid electoral damage, while possibly allowing limited humanitarian aid to appease US President Donald Trump. Ahmed al-Hila, a political analyst, predicted a period of deliberate ambiguity and military pressure designed to undermine the agreement on the ground.
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Challenges to Palestinian Administration and Regional Diplomacy
The Israeli military’s refusal to withdraw from the so-called “Yellow Line” area, which covers about 52 percent of Gaza, and its demand for unrestricted military freedom across the enclave, undermine the roadmap’s call for an independent Palestinian administration to manage civilian affairs and reconstruction.
Al-Qarra highlighted that Israeli control over large parts of Gaza renders any Palestinian administrative efforts ineffective, as such bodies would lack the necessary freedom and resources to rebuild infrastructure and provide services. He warned that Palestinians might view such administrations as mere collaborators if they operate under Israeli military oversight.
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Israel has also opposed the involvement of Qatar and Turkey in the roadmap’s verification mechanisms, seeking to exclude these countries from the oversight process. This move is seen as an attempt to weaken Palestinian diplomatic support and isolate them regionally, according to al-Qarra.
Diplomatic Impasse and Eroding Trust
The stalled negotiations and continued violence have eroded trust in the US role as an impartial mediator. Nickolay Mladenov, the lead envoy for the Board of Peace, condemned recent strikes in Gaza that killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies, urging both sides to uphold their obligations to achieve lasting peace.
However, Palestinian analysts remain skeptical of Washington’s neutrality. Al-Qarra emphasized that the Palestinian leadership does not expect the US to act as an unbiased partner but aims to prevent it from enabling Israel to further devastate Gaza.
As the ceasefire roadmap faces mounting challenges, the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, with the risk of renewed large-scale conflict looming amid political maneuvering and deep-seated mistrust on all sides.
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