JD Vance declines to predict when Iran conflict will end

JD Vance declines to predict when Iran conflict will end

US Vice President JD Vance declined on Thursday to give a timeline for the end of the US-Israeli war on Iran, saying the answer depended in part on whether Iran stopped firing at ships. He said he did not know when that would happen.

Vance questioned whether the conflict should be called a war, saying there was no active shooting while acknowledging that fighting had flared in some places. He said major combat operations had lasted about six weeks and claimed US action had degraded Iran’s defence production capabilities.

Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central

Vance said Iran was preventing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global fossil-fuel shipments. Traffic had flowed freely before the conflict began on February 28, but Iran closed the waterway to commercial vessels after the initial US and Israeli attacks, according to the account.

About one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas moved through the strait before the war. Vance argued that US military operations were helping create conditions for shipments to increase and said a deal transferring control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves to the United States would help reduce global oil costs. For additional context, see “Iran and Oman weigh a temporary shipping route through Hormuz”.

Questions over civilian harm and military benefits

Asked about a reported US attack on a wedding party in Sirik, a coastal Iranian city, Vance said the military was investigating. The incident was reported to have killed at least five people, including children, and injured nearly 70 others. The US military said it never targets civilians, while Vance expressed scepticism about accounts from the Iranian government.

The Trump administration has also denied responsibility for an air strike on an elementary school in Minab that reportedly killed more than 150 people, most of them schoolchildren, on the first day of the war. Evidence reviewed by US media and international observers suggested the use of a US Tomahawk missile. A related part of this story is covered in “What is really moving through the Strait of Hormuz?”.

US casualties and family benefits

The conflict has killed thousands of people in Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East, including Lebanon. As of August, about 18 US service members had been killed and 750 wounded.

At the briefing, Vance was asked about reports that Libby Klinner, the widow of Air Force Major John “Alex” Klinner, had not received the full benefits provided to families of service members who die on active duty. Klinner said the benefits were withheld because the United States had not officially declared war on Iran. Vance said he would contact her directly after the briefing. The development of this issue can be followed in “Why the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global shipping”.

What happens next

The US military is investigating the reported Sirik attack, and Vance said he would reach out directly to Libby Klinner about her family’s benefits. Vance did not provide a timetable for the conflict’s end.

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