France is pressing ahead with its own next-generation fighter after France and Germany cancelled their joint Future Combat Air System in June. Germany is now weighing whether to develop an aircraft of its own or seek a role in the rival Global Combat Air Programme, led by the UK, Italy and Japan.
The split followed years of disputes between Dassault Aviation and Airbus Defence and Space over leadership and workshare, while France and Germany also differed over the aircraft’s design. The collapse has renewed concerns that Europe could build too many competing fighter programmes instead of sharing costs and technology.
Germany’s options are narrowing
Germany could ask to join GCAP as a core participant, although adding another partner could increase the risk of delays. Leonardo chief executive Lorenzo Mariani called Germany a potentially positive and financially strong partner, while acknowledging that expanding the programme would be difficult.
Airbus Defence and Space chief executive Michael Schoellhorn said the company would join an arrangement in which it could secure a significant share of the work and leadership. Germany could also pursue a separate aircraft, potentially with partners, but defence industry figures warn that Europe may struggle to support even two competing fighter programmes.
Key points
- Dassault Aviation chief executive Éric Trappier said a French next-generation combat jet could be developed nationally or with other partners, with a demonstrator targeted as early as 2031.
- The UK, Italy and Japan are developing the Tempest under GCAP, with the Edgewing joint venture established to build it.
- Canada joined GCAP at Farnborough as an observer, a status that could put it in line to buy products but does not provide the manufacturing rights of a core partner.
Why the programmes are difficult to combine
The Franco-German effort was further weakened when French engine maker Safran announced it would end its joint engine work with Germany’s MTU Aero Engines. France wanted a smaller aircraft able to operate from its aircraft carriers, while Germany has no aircraft carriers, adding to the differences over the final design.
Fighter programmes need large production runs to be economical. About 600 aircraft is considered a strong industrial benchmark, while France has 228 Rafale fighters in service, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. A divided European market could leave several aircraft competing for export orders.
The technology race is moving beyond the aircraft
The Tempest and the US F47 are being developed as sixth-generation fighters with more advanced stealth, artificial-intelligence technologies and drone swarms operating alongside them. Industry consensus described in the report is that crewed fighters are still expected to be needed when these systems enter service, although their role may be supported by remotely operated “loyal wingman” drones.
Dassault’s proposed aircraft could instead build on the Rafale with upgraded radar, weapons, digital systems and an engine. Critics question whether that approach would deliver the same stealth capabilities as a fully redesigned sixth-generation jet; the Rafale upgrade already in development for the early 2030s is intended to work with stealth drones.
What happens next
European defence executives will need to decide whether Germany can join GCAP, develop a separate aircraft or remain a customer rather than a core industrial partner. The programme’s stated aim is to have the Tempest in the air by 2035, while Dassault is targeting a flying demonstrator as early as 2031.
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